Will Australia acquire nuclear weapons before 2031?
GeopolitikOne-OffMiddle EastChinaLatin AmericaTechnik4J
Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-Prognose
Nein 97.5%
Prognostiker
14
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 1 Stunde
Verzogert9. Feb. 24, 13:36 UTC1. März 31, 22:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will Iran acquire nuclear weapons before 2031?
Manifold MarketsWill Turkey acquire nuclear weapons before 2031?
Manifold MarketsWill Japan acquire nuclear weapons before 2031?
Manifold MarketsAnthony Albanese out as Prime Minister of Australia by which date?
PolymarketWill the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
PolymarketHow much will the US acquire Greenland for?
KalshiRegeln
Resolves as YES if there is strong evidence that Australia has acquired at least one nuclear weapon before January 1st 2031.
- This device must be under the sovereign control of the Australian State, and they must have the ability to use it independently.
- Different countries:
- @/RemNi/will-japan-acquire-nuclear-weapons
- @/RemNi/will-australia-acquire-nuclear-weap (this question)
- @/RemNi/will-south-korea-acquire-nuclear-we
Offene Märkte
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt75%
- New People (NL)-4.1pt21%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
+5 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 22,2 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 470.753,1 €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-2.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.3%
- September 30-4.0pt12.1%
+17 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30+1.0pt80%
- September 18+1.0pt75%
- September 11+6.5pt70%
+2 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No-0.2pt96%
- Yes+0.2pt4%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 35,3 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 100.050,2 €
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 317%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- July 310%
+7 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- What will Trump say during RNC Convention (Night 2)?
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will Australia acquire nuclear weapons before 2031??
- Manifold Markets bewertet No mit 98% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird Will Australia acquire nuclear weapons before 2031? entschieden?
- Will Australia acquire nuclear weapons before 2031? soll am 1. März 2031 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Will Australia acquire nuclear weapons before 2031? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: Resolves as YES if there is strong evidence that Australia has acquired at least one nuclear weapon before January 1st 2031.