Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-Prognose
Nein 81.2%
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54
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 14 Stunden
Veraltet22. Dez. 23, 14:22 UTC1. Jan. 30, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will AI cause the US Unemployment Rate to exceed 10% before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWhich UBI policy will be adopted after mass unemployment due to AI?
Manifold MarketsWill AI cause an incident resulting in $1b of losses or 100 lost lives?
Manifold MarketsFed Decision in September?
PolymarketInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
KalshiCPI in August
KalshiRegeln
To resolve, I'll take direction from the consensus of the mainstream media...
- If major media outlets are saying unemployment has risen to over 25% (I believe that was roughly how bad things got in the American Great Depression?) and unequivocally state that AI is the primary cause, then we got a winner!
Offene Märkte
EconomyPOLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+2.0pt54%
- No change-3.0pt45%
- 50+ bps increase1%
+2 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 89,9 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 1,7 Mio. €
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.5%99%
- Above 2.6%99%
- Above 2.8%99%
+23 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 541.193 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 30.703 €
KALSHICPI in August
- Above 0.1%99%
- Above -0.4%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
+12 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 334.228 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 12.782,3 €
KALSHIUS government budget balance in 2026
- Above -8.5% of GDP97%
- Above -8.0% of GDP71%
- Above -7.5% of GDP58%
+4 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 10.726,9 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 10.726,9 €
KALSHIGovernment shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
- No98%
- Yes2%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 612.533,9 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 6886,5 €
KALSHIRecession this year?
- No95%
- Yes+1.0pt5%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 2,9 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 5285,2 €
- Recession in 2027?
- Will the Citrini scenario happen?
- France’s government budget balance in 2026
- United Kingdom’s government budget balance in 2026
- Eurozone GDP growth in Q3 2026
- China’s government budget balance in 2026
- Germany’s government budget balance in 2026
- CPI in September
- CPI core in August
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- US real GDP growth in Q3 2026?
- Unemployment in September
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will AI cause mass unemployment... by 2030 ??
- Manifold Markets bewertet No mit 81% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird Will AI cause mass unemployment... by 2030 ? entschieden?
- Will AI cause mass unemployment... by 2030 ? soll am 1. Januar 2030 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Will AI cause mass unemployment... by 2030 ? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: To resolve, I'll take direction from the consensus of the mainstream media...