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Veraltet7. Mai 23, 02:00 UTC31. Dez. 29, 23:59 UTC
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Will the US unemployment rate exceed 10% again before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill the US Unemployment Rate Exceed Dotcom Bubble Levels before 2030?
Manifold MarketsUS unemployment rate at year-end 2029
KalshiWill the US Unemployment Rate exceed 3.7% in December 2026?
ForecastExWill the US Unemployment Rate exceed 4.2% in November 2026? (Jobless) (Jobs) (Labor market) (Layoffs) (Economy)?
ForecastExWill the US Unemployment Rate exceed 4% in November 2026? (Jobless) (Jobs) (Labor market) (Layoffs) (Economy)?
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https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE
- Update 2023-12-06: I appreciate the discussion here, I know it's an ambiguous question and ultimately it's a judgement call, here's my best attempt at quantifying the intent:
- This only resolves Yes if AI increasing worker productivity or taking over people's jobs is directly responsible for at least 3 percentage points of the unemployment rate.
- If unemployment rate spikes due to something else and then the jobs don't come back because AI takes them over, that counts.
- I will use sober economic analysis to judge this, and wait at least 6 months after a spike to wait for better data before resolving Yes.