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Veraltet7. Mai 23, 02:00 UTC31. Dez. 29, 23:59 UTC
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Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will the US unemployment rate exceed 10% again before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill the US Unemployment Rate Exceed Dotcom Bubble Levels before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill AI cause mass unemployment... by 2030 ?
Manifold MarketsUS unemployment rate at year-end 2029
KalshiWill the US Unemployment Rate exceed 4.3% in June 2027?
ForecastExWill the US Unemployment Rate exceed 4.2% in September 2026?
ForecastExRegeln
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE
- Update 2023-12-06: I appreciate the discussion here, I know it's an ambiguous question and ultimately it's a judgement call, here's my best attempt at quantifying the intent:
- This only resolves Yes if AI increasing worker productivity or taking over people's jobs is directly responsible for at least 3 percentage points of the unemployment rate.
- If unemployment rate spikes due to something else and then the jobs don't come back because AI takes them over, that counts.
- I will use sober economic analysis to judge this, and wait at least 6 months after a spike to wait for better data before resolving Yes.
Offene Märkte
Economy
POLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+2.0pt54%
- No change-3.0pt45%
- 50+ bps increase1%
+2 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 89,9 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 1,7 Mio. €
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.5%99%
- Above 2.6%99%
- Above 2.8%99%
+23 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 541.193 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 30.703 €
KALSHICPI in August
- Above 0.1%99%
- Above -0.4%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
+12 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 334.228 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 12.782,3 €
KALSHIUS government budget balance in 2026
- Above -8.5% of GDP97%
- Above -8.0% of GDP71%
- Above -7.5% of GDP58%
+4 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 10.726,9 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 10.726,9 €
KALSHIGovernment shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
- No98%
- Yes2%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 612.533,9 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 6886,5 €
KALSHIRecession this year?
- No95%
- Yes+1.0pt5%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 2,9 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 5285,2 €
- Recession in 2027?
- Will the Citrini scenario happen?
- France’s government budget balance in 2026
- United Kingdom’s government budget balance in 2026
- Eurozone GDP growth in Q3 2026
- China’s government budget balance in 2026
- Germany’s government budget balance in 2026
- CPI in September
- CPI core in August
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- US real GDP growth in Q3 2026?
- Unemployment in September
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will AI cause the US Unemployment Rate to exceed 10% before 2030??
- Manifold Markets bewertet No mit 75% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird Will AI cause the US Unemployment Rate to exceed 10% before 2030? entschieden?
- Will AI cause the US Unemployment Rate to exceed 10% before 2030? soll am 31. Dezember 2029 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Will AI cause the US Unemployment Rate to exceed 10% before 2030? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE