Will a serious war break out between two of the major military powers (NATO, US, China, Russia, Europe) before 2028?
GeopolitikOne-OffRussia / UkraineChinaEurope1JManifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 81.7%
Prognostiker
26
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 5 Stunden
Veraltet29. März 25, 09:48 UTC31. Dez. 27, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
US-China Track 1 AI dialogue commits to shared AI safety benchmark by '27?
Manifold MarketsWill Paris be the hub of AI in Europe by the end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill Germany formally exceed NATO's 2% GDP defense spending and deploy troops outside Europe by end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsUS x China tariff agreement by December 31?
PolymarketWhen will the US and China reach a tariff agreement?
KalshiUS x China Military clash before 2027?
PolymarketRegeln
For the purposes of this question, a serious war is defined as causing at least 1,000 combat-related deaths, as listed here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_ongoing_armed_conflicts.
- For the conflict to qualify, it needs to involve at least two of the major military powers listed in the title, in opposing camps.
- [link preview]"Europe" is either the European Union, or one of the major European militaries (UK, France, Germany).
- An internal European conflict such as UK-France would also count.
Offene Märkte
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt74%
- New People (NL)-3.0pt22%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.9pt3%
+5 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 22,3 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 581.272,5 €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-3.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.8%
- September 30-3.5pt12.3%
+17 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30-12.5pt69%
- September 18-14.5pt62%
- September 11-17.5pt51%
+2 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 31+1.0pt8%
- September 30+0.4pt2%
- July 310%
+7 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- No-1.0pt84.2%
- Yes+1.0pt15.8%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 55,9 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 96.847,5 €
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will a serious war break out between two of the major military powers (NATO, US, China, Russia, Europe) before 2028??
- Manifold Markets bewertet No mit 82% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird Will a serious war break out between two of the major military powers (NATO, US, China, Russia, Europe) before 2028? entschieden?
- Will a serious war break out between two of the major military powers (NATO, US, China, Russia, Europe) before 2028? soll am 31. Dezember 2027 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Will a serious war break out between two of the major military powers (NATO, US, China, Russia, Europe) before 2028? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: For the purposes of this question, a serious war is defined as causing at least 1,000 combat-related deaths, as listed here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_ongoing_armed_conflicts.