Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseIn hiding from US/Israeli assassination 51.5%Führend unter 6 Optionen
Prognostiker
24
Fragetyp
multiple choice
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
7d-Änderung
0.0 pts
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 14 Stunden
Veraltet10. Juli 26, 15:18 UTC1. Jan. 27, 00:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be alive on Jan 1, 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill Mojtaba Khamenei be killed by US/Israeli forces in 2026?
Manifold MarketsIn how many days will Mojtaba Khamenei die?
Manifold MarketsTrump meets with Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei by which date?
PolymarketMojtaba Khamenei public appearance by which date?
LimitlessMojtaba Khamenei public appearance by which date?
PolymarketRegeln
Or given any televised statements.
- I'll resolve it to whatever the NYT attributes the absence to, but I'll only start checking 3 months after his first public appearance, as allowance for fog of war.
- I may resolve to prob.
- Update 2026-07-10 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Resolution will be a split resolution between all answers invoked in the reporting sampled, not necessarily equal weight
- December 31 close date is a placeholder; creator will attempt to resolve ~3 months after Mojtaba Khamenei's first public appearance
Offene Märkte
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Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Why hasn't Mojtaba Khamenei been seen in public??
- Manifold Markets bewertet In hiding from US/Israeli assassination mit 52% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird Why hasn't Mojtaba Khamenei been seen in public? entschieden?
- Why hasn't Mojtaba Khamenei been seen in public? soll am 1. Januar 2027 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Why hasn't Mojtaba Khamenei been seen in public? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: Or given any televised statements.