Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseMojtaba Khamenei 83.3%Führend unter 13 Optionen
Prognostiker
54
Fragetyp
multiple choice
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
7d-Änderung
0.0 pts
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 7 Stunden
Veraltet9. Jan. 26, 14:14 UTC1. Jan. 27, 00:00 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will the United States recognize Reza Pahlavi as the leader of Iran in 2026?
KalshiUS recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?
PolymarketLeader of Iran at end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWho will be the next paramount leader of China?
Manifold MarketsWho will be the next Paramount leader of the People's Republic of China after Xi Jinping?
Manifold MarketsWill Iran still be charging tolls in the strait of hermuz on January 1st, 2027?
Manifold MarketsRegeln
The paramount leader is whoever the de facto leader of Iran is, regardless of their specific job title.
- Currently this is Supreme Leader the named outcome.
- If there is a complicated messy civil war, this goes by who controls the capital and governing apparatus.
- I intend to go by a similar standard to the CIA World Factbook or the Wikipedia infobox, though I don't commit to matching them if they're outdated or inaccurate.
- Update 2026-03-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If Iran adopts a constitutional monarchy or similar system where the head of state has little de facto power, the market resolves to whoever holds the most de facto power (e.g., the head of government), not the nominal head of state.