Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseMojtaba Khamenei 79.5%Führend unter 13 Optionen
Prognostiker
54
Fragetyp
multiple choice
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
7d-Änderung
-1.0 pts
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 4 Stunden
Veraltet9. Jan. 26, 14:14 UTC1. Jan. 27, 00:00 UTC
Trends
0.5%
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Who will be the next paramount leader of China?
Manifold MarketsUS recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?
PolymarketWill Trump meet the Supreme Leader of Iran?
KalshiWill the United States recognize Reza Pahlavi as the leader of Iran in 2026?
KalshiLeader of Iran at end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Monero (XMR) Coin be worth more than $475 on January 1st, 2027?
Manifold MarketsRegeln
The paramount leader is whoever the de facto leader of Iran is, regardless of their specific job title.
- Currently this is Supreme Leader the named outcome.
- If there is a complicated messy civil war, this goes by who controls the capital and governing apparatus.
- I intend to go by a similar standard to the CIA World Factbook or the Wikipedia infobox, though I don't commit to matching them if they're outdated or inaccurate.
- Update 2026-03-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If Iran adopts a constitutional monarchy or similar system where the head of state has little de facto power, the market resolves to whoever holds the most de facto power (e.g., the head of government), not the nominal head of state.
Offene Märkte
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt75%
- New People (NL)-4.1pt21%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
+5 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 22,2 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 470.753,1 €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-2.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.3%
- September 30-4.0pt12.1%
+17 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30+1.0pt80%
- September 18+1.0pt75%
- September 11+6.5pt70%
+2 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No-0.2pt96%
- Yes+0.2pt4%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 35,3 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 100.050,2 €
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 317%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- July 310%
+7 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- What will Trump say during RNC Convention (Night 2)?
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Who will be paramount leader of Iran on January 1st 2027??
- Manifold Markets bewertet Mojtaba Khamenei mit 80% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird Who will be paramount leader of Iran on January 1st 2027? entschieden?
- Who will be paramount leader of Iran on January 1st 2027? soll am 1. Januar 2027 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Who will be paramount leader of Iran on January 1st 2027? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: The paramount leader is whoever the de facto leader of Iran is, regardless of their specific job title.