Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-Prognose2029 21.3%Führend unter 7 Optionen
Prognostiker
24
Fragetyp
multiple choice
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
7d-Änderung
0.0 pts
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 19 Stunden
Veraltet29. Okt. 23, 00:33 UTC5. Jan. 30, 07:59 UTC
Trends
0%
0%
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
When will the US and Iran be at war? (unlinked, permanent)
Manifold MarketsWill the US or China impose a ban on releasing open weight AIs above a certain threshold before 2030
Manifold MarketsWill a city be built in Antarctica for permanent human residence by 2030?
Manifold MarketsUS x China tariff agreement by December 31?
PolymarketWhen will the US and China reach a tariff agreement?
KalshiUS x China Military clash before 2027?
PolymarketRegeln
Each year resolves:
- YES if the USA and China were at war at any point in that year.
- NO at the end of that year otherwise.
- I won't bet.
Offene Märkte
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt74%
- New People (NL)-3.0pt22%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.9pt3%
+5 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 22,3 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 581.272,5 €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-3.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.8%
- September 30-3.5pt12.3%
+17 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30-12.5pt69%
- September 18-14.5pt62%
- September 11-17.5pt51%
+2 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 31+1.0pt8%
- September 30+0.4pt2%
- July 310%
+7 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- No-1.0pt84.2%
- Yes+1.0pt15.8%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 55,9 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 96.847,5 €
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für When will the US and China be at war? (Unlinked, permanent)?
- Manifold Markets bewertet 2029 mit 21% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird When will the US and China be at war? (Unlinked, permanent) entschieden?
- When will the US and China be at war? (Unlinked, permanent) soll am 5. Januar 2030 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird When will the US and China be at war? (Unlinked, permanent) abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: Each year resolves: