PolymarketVerfügbarkeit prüfenKein KYC2% GebührVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenGut kalibriertAktuelle implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit
Nein 92.1%
Marktqualitat
75 / 100
Hohe Qualität24h-Volumen
4833 €
Liquidität
15.125,3 €
Mittlere LiquiditätGeld / Brief
7.0% / 8.0%
Spread
1.0 pt
Enger SpreadKommentare
0
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 11 Minuten
14. Sept. 26, 20:40 UTC1. Jan. 27, 04:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
The American open AI frontier will catch up to Chinese models in 2026
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KalshiUS and China publicly announce a bilateral AI arrangement before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill the US and/or China ban at least two open-source AI models before 2027?
Manifold MarketsRegeln
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the governments of the United States and China announce an AI pacing agreement between them by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- An AI pacing agreement means an agreement under which both governments commit to at least one of the following for AI developers within their jurisdictions: conditioning the training, releasing, or deploying AI models on safety requirements; capping the computing power used to train AI models; limiting the rate or extent to which AI systems autonomously train or improve more capable AI systems (recursive self-improvement); or otherwise pausing or slowing the training or release of AI models.
- Both governments must announce their acceptance of the agreement.
- A joint statement will qualify, as will separate official statements from each government that, taken together, confirm acceptance of the agreement.
- A statement by one government that the other does not confirm, and statements that reference ongoing negotiations, a prospective agreement, or an intention to cooperate without confirming acceptance of an agreement, will not qualify.
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Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für US x China agree to pace the AI frontier in 2026??
- Polymarket bewertet No mit 92% (Stand: 15. September 2026).
- Wann wird US x China agree to pace the AI frontier in 2026? entschieden?
- US x China agree to pace the AI frontier in 2026? soll am 1. Januar 2027 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird US x China agree to pace the AI frontier in 2026? abgerechnet?
- Polymarket rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the governments of the United States and China announce an AI pacing agreement between them by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.