Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseJapan 24%Führend unter 16 Optionen
Prognostiker
39
Fragetyp
multiple choice
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
7d-Änderung
0.0 pts
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 18 Stunden
Veraltet9. Dez. 23, 03:24 UTC1. Jan. 31, 04:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will Iran have a nuclear weapon by 2030?
Manifold MarketsConditional on Iran developing a nuclear weapon, will Iran pre-emptively nuke Israel?
Manifold MarketsWill Iran use a nuclear weapon in combat by 2030?
Manifold MarketsNew nuclear weapon tests in 2026?
FutuurDario Amodei arrested by December 31?
PolymarketWhich companies will be added to the Pentagon’s Chinese military companies list?
KalshiRegeln
Both local development of a nuke and the receipt of a nuke by other means will resolve Yes.
- A nuke that legally belongs to another country but is consensually stored and ready to use in the territory or on weapons platforms belonging to a new country will resolve Yes, as will any other new or revealed nuke-sharing.
- So if the Cuban Missile Crisis happened tomorrow, Cuba would resolve Yes.
- The same for the First Taiwan Straight Crisis.
- Likewise, Canada being revealed to secretly keep US-owned nukes in their territory would resolve Yes even though they were previously denied.
- Past shared weapons do not count.
Offene Märkte
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt74%
- New People (NL)-3.0pt22%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.9pt3%
+5 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 22,3 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 581.272,5 €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-3.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.8%
- September 30-3.5pt12.3%
+17 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30-12.5pt69%
- September 18-14.5pt62%
- September 11-17.5pt51%
+2 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 31+1.0pt8%
- September 30+0.4pt2%
- July 310%
+7 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- No-1.0pt84.2%
- Yes+1.0pt15.8%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 55,9 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 96.847,5 €
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für What will be the next country to come into possession of their own nuclear weapon??
- Manifold Markets bewertet Japan mit 24% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird What will be the next country to come into possession of their own nuclear weapon? entschieden?
- What will be the next country to come into possession of their own nuclear weapon? soll am 1. Januar 2031 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird What will be the next country to come into possession of their own nuclear weapon? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: Both local development of a nuke and the receipt of a nuke by other means will resolve Yes.