Strait of Hormuz returns to normal by end of July 2027?
One-OffGeopolitikRohstoffeGesundheit & MedizinNaher Osten9MonManifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 53.3%
Prognostiker
5
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 29 Minuten
26. Aug. 26, 21:25 UTC31. Juli 27, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Regeln
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if, by July 31, 2027, the Strait of Hormuz has resumed normal, unrestricted commercial operations and shipping transit volumes.
- To ensure an unambiguous resolution, this market will resolve to YES if any of the following conditions are met for the month of July 2027 (or the latest available reporting month by August 15, 2027):
- Shipping Volumes: The daily volume of crude oil and petroleum liquids transiting the Strait of Hormuz averages at least 15 million barrels per day (mb/d) over a monthly reporting period (compared to the pre-conflict average of ~20 mb/d), as reported by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the International Energy Agency (IEA), or major market tracking firms (such as Kpler or Vortexa).
- Vessel Transits: Daily commercial vessel transits through the Strait of Hormuz average at least 50 vessels per day over a 30-day period (compared to the pre-conflict median of ~73 transits/day), as tracked by IMF PortWatch or the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO).
- Consensus of Re-opening: Major global shipping lines (such as Maersk, MSC, CMA CGM, and Hapag-Lloyd) have officially resumed standard, unrestricted transit through the Strait of Hormuz without active naval blockades, as reported by reputable maritime outlets (e.g., Lloyd's List) or mainstream financial news (e.g., Reuters, Bloomberg).
