Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-Prognose6 - 100 75%Führend unter 6 Optionen
Prognostiker
39
Fragetyp
multiple choice
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
7d-Änderung
0.0 pts
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 3 Stunden
Veraltet23. Feb. 26, 18:37 UTC31. Dez. 26, 18:25 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
If the US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026, will the Iranian regime fall in 2026?
Manifold MarketsIf the US strikes Iran by June 30th, 2026, will the Iranian regime fall in 2026?
Manifold MarketsIf Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026, will the Iranian regime fall in 2026?
Manifold MarketsHow much did the 2025/06/21 U.S. strikes on Iran delay the nuclear weapon program?
Manifold MarketsIf elected, will Trump willingly leave power once his term is up?
Manifold MarketsWhat will happen during Trump's second term?
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Resolution Criteria
- This market resolves to the total number of American citizens and military personnel killed by Iran by the end of 2026 conditional on a US military (kinetic) strike on Iranian territory.
- The count includes deaths from Iranian military, IRGC and any units mentioned here.
- Deaths from indirect consequences (e.g., economic disruption) do not count.
- Deaths by terror attacks count only if Iran takes full responsibility.
- If no US strike on Iran occurs by the end of 2026, the market resolves N/A. Resolution will be based on reliable sources as defined by Wikipedia.
