Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-Prognose
Trump publicly suggests, while in office, that he shouldn't have to leave 92.1%Führend unter 7 Optionen
Trump publicly suggests, while in office, that he shouldn't have to leave 92.1%Prognostiker
203
Fragetyp
multiple choice
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
7d-Änderung
0.0 pts
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Aktualisiert vor 14 Stunden
Veraltet28. Juni 24, 04:42 UTC20. Dez. 28, 23:59 UTC
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If Trump loses the 2024 election, or e.g. has a heart attack immediately after winning, "Trump isn't elected or fails to take office" resolves YES and all other options resolve NO.
- If Trump is still in power in February 2029, even if it's temporary because of an emergency or something like that, "the named outcome" resolves YES and "the named outcome" resolves NO.
- If Trump is replaced by a Republican who he has strong influence over, that still counts as leaving office, unless it's incredibly clear to international observers that it was a total sham election to appoint a puppet.
- If there's substantial ambiguity around an option, it will resolve to a percentage based on my judgement.
- Update 2025-03-22 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Conspiracy Theories Do Not Count
- Claims by conspiracy theorists or groups (e.g. QAnon) that Trump is secretly POTUS will not affect the resolution.
