Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertWarnung zur DatenqualitätQuelldaten beeinträchtigt
Daten vom 26.10.2026, 04:22 UTC · Richtlinie pm-quality-4
Aktuelle Community-PrognoseGradual resource monopolization / slow squeeze 16.5%Führend unter 13 Optionen
Prognostiker
67
Fragetyp
multiple choice
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
7d-Änderung
+0.7 pts
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 10 Stunden
Veraltet4. Apr. 26, 17:28 UTC11. Apr. 80, 17:17 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
If a misaligned ASI kills everyone, how will it kill the last 100k people?
Manifold MarketsIn the first event when AI kills at least 1,000 people, how many people will be killed?
Manifold MarketsIf, before 2050, AI kills more than 1 million people, will the policy response be insufficient?
Manifold Markets[Metaculus] Will there be a tsunami that kills at least 50,000 people before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWhat will the next world-wide crisis be?
Manifold MarketsWhat are Donald Trumps real goals in relation with Greenland?
Manifold MarketsRegeln
If AI starts to kill everyone with some method and I am still alive and not super shocked, I will resolve the market accordingly.
- It is enough that AI kills the majority of people by the given method A, whereas the minority is killed by some other method, for the market to be resolved in favour of method A. AI mod can resolve it if it wants if all humans are killed.
- Update 2026-04-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If AI turns humans into robots, this will not count as being 'killed' for resolution purposes.
- Update 2026-04-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Involuntary mind-uploading of everyone does not count as killing everyone for resolution purposes.
- Update 2026-04-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If humans and AI collaborate to kill everyone, AI gets credit for the resolution as long as AI is a significant part of it.
