Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenGut kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNothing Ever Happens (Nothing Happens) 67.8%+10.8ptFührend unter 7 Optionen
Prognostiker
49
Fragetyp
multiple choice
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
7d-Änderung
+10.8 pts
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 17 Stunden
Veraltet18. Nov. 25, 14:28 UTC1. Jan. 30, 04:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Which positive news category will make 2026 world-wide headlines?
Manifold MarketsIs Russia accelerating the climate crisis?
Manifold MarketsIf AI kills everyone, how will it do it?
Manifold MarketsWhat are Donald Trumps real goals in relation with Greenland?
Manifold MarketsAny of these 30 LLM-generated disasters happens in Europe through 2027
Manifold MarketsWill any other country enter into a similar agreement to the Falepili Union with a Pacific Island country before 2030?
Manifold MarketsRegeln
I'll search for current information on these potential end-times signals to provide accurate context for traders.#### Resolution Criteria
- This market resolves YES if any of the following occurs by the end of 2029:
- Climate Displacement: An estimated 30 million people are displaced annually due to climate-related disasters, but the 500 million threshold requires verification through EITHER UN UNHCR reports or World Bank climate migration assessments.
- Resolution via UNHCR Displacement Data or World Bank Climate Migration Reports.
- US Default: The Bipartisan Policy Center projected the "X-date" will "most likely occur between August 15 and October 3" if Congress fails to raise the debt ceiling.
- Resolution via US Treasury Department official announcement of default or missed payment.
