Any of these 30 LLM-generated disasters happens in Europe through 2027
PolitikOne-OffGesundheit & MedizinWetterGeopolitikRussland / UkraineSportSchachEuropaKI1J
Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseJa 76.3%
Prognostiker
10
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 14 Minuten
11. Sept. 23, 16:24 UTC2. Jan. 28, 06:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will these LLM + search companies still be in business in 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill "LLM-generated text is not testimony" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsNothing Ever Happens: 2026
PolymarketNothing Ever Happens: October
PolymarketNothing Ever Happens 2026
Manifold MarketsIf Iran regime change happens > Credible media evidence that US + Israel caused it?
Manifold MarketsRegeln
We will evaluate by:
- 1) selecting an article from news
- 2) paste the article into an LLM along with the question: "based on this article, how confident are you that this event has happened from 0-100%? Please answer by filling in this template: {" text of disaster from list above", probability: X%}
- If the average probability across leadingLLMs or the best AI agents at the time, across five tries each, is over 70%, this can resolve true.
- So overall we use the LLM to evaluate the claim based on an article.
- I'm going to try to seek truth as much as possible and not accept a trick or false or unintuitive resolution.
