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Daten vom 25.10.2026, 15:20 UTC · Richtlinie pm-quality-4
Aktuelle Community-Prognose
0.001M-0.1M 41.5%Führend unter 6 Optionen
0.001M-0.1M 41.5%Prognostiker
23
Fragetyp
multiple choice
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
7d-Änderung
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Aktualisiert vor 15 Stunden
Veraltet6. Juni 24, 08:26 UTC1. Jan. 40, 22:59 UTC
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Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
When will war in Ukraine deescalate to <100 people killed in a year?
Manifold MarketsIf AI kills everyone, how will it do it?
Manifold MarketsIf, before 2050, AI kills more than 1 million people, will the policy response be insufficient?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a prion disease outbreak in the United States before 2028 that kills more than 24 people?
Manifold MarketsWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
KalshiBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiRegeln
Criteria for Resolution:
- Intentional Killing: The deaths must be intentional, to the best of our judgment.
- Incidental or unintended consequences of AI actions, such as side effects from a drug developed by AI, do not qualify.
- Event Definition:
- - The event may have long-lasting effects, but it must originate from a more or less instantaneous and well-defined initial action by the AI.
- - The event can span a longer timeframe if the initial AI action directly leads to the deaths over time (e.g., an AI-initiated blackmailing campaign resulting in deaths occurring up to a year after the initial action).
