Conditional on a global pause before strong AGI, how long in total will there be a pause on frontier training?
GeopolitikOne-OffKITechnik7JManifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-Prognose6 to 24 months 36%Führend unter 4 Optionen
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6
Fragetyp
multiple choice
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
7d-Änderung
+2.0 pts
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 14 Stunden
Veraltet17. Aug. 26, 22:54 UTC31. Dez. 33, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will there be a global pause on the largest AI training runs at any point before AGI?
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PolymarketRegeln
uses strong AGI from this Metaculus question: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/date-of-artificial-general-intelligence/
- pause doesn't have to be continuous but cumulative pause time
- Resolution criteria
- This is a conditional market.
- It will resolve to N/A if a global pause on frontier AI training does not occur before "strong AGI" is achieved.
- If a global pause on frontier training is enacted prior to the arrival of strong AGI, this market will resolve to the option representing the cumulative duration of the pause(s) before strong AGI is officially achieved.
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Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Conditional on a global pause before strong AGI, how long in total will there be a pause on frontier training??
- Manifold Markets bewertet 6 to 24 months mit 36% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird Conditional on a global pause before strong AGI, how long in total will there be a pause on frontier training? entschieden?
- Conditional on a global pause before strong AGI, how long in total will there be a pause on frontier training? soll am 31. Dezember 2033 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Conditional on a global pause before strong AGI, how long in total will there be a pause on frontier training? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: uses strong AGI from this Metaculus question: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/date-of-artificial-general-intelligence/