Conditional on a global pause before strong AGI, how long in total will there be a pause on frontier training?
GeopolitikOne-OffKITechnik7J
Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-Prognose6 to 24 months 36%Führend unter 4 Optionen
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17. Aug. 26, 22:54 UTC31. Dez. 33, 23:59 UTC
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uses strong AGI from this Metaculus question: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/date-of-artificial-general-intelligence/
- pause doesn't have to be continuous but cumulative pause time
- Resolution criteria
- This is a conditional market.
- It will resolve to N/A if a global pause on frontier AI training does not occur before "strong AGI" is achieved.
- If a global pause on frontier training is enacted prior to the arrival of strong AGI, this market will resolve to the option representing the cumulative duration of the pause(s) before strong AGI is officially achieved.
