FutuurVerfügbarkeit prüfenVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenWarnung zur DatenqualitätKeine aktiven Kurse
Daten vom 26.10.2026, 20:16 UTC · Richtlinie pm-quality-4
Aktuelle implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit
December 31 21%
December 31 21%Marktqualitat
27 / 100
Niedrige Qualität24h-Volumen
—
Liquidität
1617 €
Niedrige LiquiditätTrader
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Aktualisiert vor 1 Minute
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Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by which date?
PolymarketIsrael x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by which date?
FutuurWhen will the 2023 Israel Hamas war end? (Longer)
Manifold MarketsWill Benjamin Netanyahu cease to be Prime Minister of Israel before the Israel–Hamas war ends?
Manifold MarketsWill Israel win the 2023 Israel–Hamas war?
Manifold MarketsWill AOH1996 advance past Phase II trials by the end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsRegeln
This set of markets predicts whether Israel and Hamas will reach an official agreement on the second phase of their ceasefire.
- On October 8, 2025, an initial ceasefire agreement ("Phase 1") was announced, comprising a halt in fighting, a partial Israeli pullback to a "yellow line", prisoner swaps, expanded aid, and the release of hostages.
- Each market below covers one possible deadline; any number of these markets may resolve "Yes" (an agreement reached before an earlier deadline also counts toward all later deadlines).
- A market resolves "Yes" if an official agreement for the second phase of the Israel–Hamas ceasefire — a publicly announced mutual agreement — is reached between Israel and Hamas on or before the market's deadline.
- A "second phase" ceasefire agreement is a deal publicly acknowledged by both Israel and Hamas (directly or via recognized mediators such as the U.S., Egypt, or Qatar) that goes beyond the Phase 1 initial truce and includes commitments toward a comprehensive or "full" ceasefire.
- Any agreement publicly described by the parties, or by mediators on their behalf, as the completion of "Phase 2" of the ceasefire qualifies, regardless of whether it includes further Israeli withdrawals beyond the "yellow line" or commitments by Hamas to disarm.
Vergleich von Prognosequellen
- Auch verfügbar auf Polymarket — Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by...? · December 31 12%