Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 96.8%
Previsores
3
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 12 minutos
13/10/26, 04:48 UTC31/10/26, 14:59 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
What will the biggest earthquake be on October 13, 2026?
PolymarketMajor earthquake to hit the West Coast of the US by the end of 2026?
FutuurWill San Francisco experience a major earthquake before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill a major earthquake (above 8.0 magnitude) strike a populated area in the Pacific Ring of Fire within five years?
Manifold MarketsWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
PolymarketWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
KalshiRegras
This market will be resolved as YES only if an earthquake strong enough to be covered as major news outside Japan occurs between October 13 and October 31, 2026, Japan time.
- This applies to the 23 wards of the former Tokyo city and not the minor cities, towns, and outlying islands governed by the Tokyo Metropolitan prefecture.
- Judgment will be based on a mention in news coverage of an earthquake taking place in "central Tokyo" or mentioning as taking place specifically in one or more of the 23 wards, in an article posted to CNN's international edition website (edition.cnn.com).