KalshiVerificar disponibilidadeKYC obrigatórioDados de resolução verificadosBem calibradoPonto médio do livro selecionado
Before 2040 · —
A carregar o livro selecionado…
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Preço registado
Before 2040 59%Líder entre 4 opções
Before 2040 59%Qualidade do mercado
62 / 100
Qualidade médiaVolume 24h
1,1 mil €
Contratos em aberto
24,6 mil US$
Contratos em aberto: médioCompra / Venda
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Before 2040Spread
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Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 41 minutos
14/08/25, 20:45 UTC1/01/30, 04:59 UTC
O gráfico e as variações mostram probabilidades históricas guardadas, não o livro selecionado em tempo real.
Tendências
Linha selecionada: ponto médio do livro. Outras linhas: referências guardadas, possivelmente normalizadas; as variações de 24h usam o histórico guardado.
Condições da plataforma
Fonte: Kalshi
Estas condições são informativas; as operações simuladas da CoinRithm seguem regras próprias.
- Encerramento antecipado:
- Sim
- Prazo de liquidação:
- 30m (informativo)
Profundidade de mercado · Before 2040
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Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Will a quantum computer prove capable of breaking 2048 bit RSA encryption by 2030?
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KalshiRegras
If a quantum computer cracks 2048-bit RSA encryption using Shor's algorithm, or accurately simulates either the nitrogenase FeMo cofactor or cytochrome P450 enzyme before Jan 1, 2040, then the market resolves to Yes.
Liquida via:Physical Review XQuantum Science and TechnologyNature PhysicsScience AdvancesProceedings of the National Academy of SciencesPhysical Review ANature Communicationsthe National Institute of Standards and Technology official publicationsIBM Research peer-reviewed publicationsGoogle Quantum AI peer-reviewed publicationsQuantinuum peer-reviewed publicationsIonQ peer-reviewed publicationsMIT Technology ReviewIEEE Transactions on Quantum EngineeringQuantum Computing ReportScience MagazineReutersAssociated PressBloomberg NewsThe Wall Street JournalThe New York TimesNatureSciencePhysical Review Letters
Regras de cada resultado
- Before 2040
- If a quantum computer cracks 2048-bit RSA encryption using Shor's algorithm, or accurately simulates either the nitrogenase FeMo cofactor or cytochrome P450 enzyme before Jan 1, 2040, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before 2035
- If a quantum computer cracks 2048-bit RSA encryption using Shor's algorithm, or accurately simulates either the nitrogenase FeMo cofactor or cytochrome P450 enzyme before Jan 1, 2035, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before 2030
- If a quantum computer cracks 2048-bit RSA encryption using Shor's algorithm, or accurately simulates either the nitrogenase FeMo cofactor or cytochrome P450 enzyme before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before 2027
- If a quantum computer cracks 2048-bit RSA encryption using Shor's algorithm, or accurately simulates either the nitrogenase FeMo cofactor or cytochrome P450 enzyme before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
