Will there be sustained armed conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea by end of December 31, 2026?
GeopolíticaOne-OffOriente Médio2mManifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualSim 70.2%
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9
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Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 26 minutos
19/04/26, 08:53 UTC31/12/26, 23:59 UTC
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- Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if there is a sustained armed conflict between the national armed forces of Ethiopia and Eritrea at any point between the market's creation and 11:59 PM UTC on December 31, 2026.
- Otherwise, it resolves to NO.
- "Sustained armed conflict" is defined as an ongoing engagement involving significant, coordinated military operations between the state forces of Ethiopia and Eritrea, lasting for at least seven consecutive days or involving more than 100 combat-related fatalities.
- Resolution will be based on credible, consensus reporting from major international news outlets (e.g., Reuters, Associated Press, BBC) and official statements from international monitoring bodies (e.g., the United Nations or African Union).