Will there be an international moratorium on frontier AGI development by EOY 2033?
GeopolíticaIAOne-OffEuropeRegulamentaçãoChinaPolítica7aManifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 76.8%
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18
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 6 horas
Desatualizado24/03/26, 14:41 UTC31/12/33, 23:59 UTC
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This market resolves YES if, before January 1, 2034, there is a formal, publicly announced international agreement or coordinated policy that constitutes a moratorium on frontier AGI development, meeting the criteria below.
- The concept of “moratorium” here refers to a halt or prohibition on training or deploying frontier AI systems at or beyond certain established threshold (may it be capabilies, scale, speed, or something else meanigfully correlated with general capabilities), combined with serious enforcement mechanisms, not merely voluntary guidelines or safety recommendations.
- Core Resolution Criteria
- The market resolves YES if ALL of the following conditions are met:
- Substance: Actual Moratorium
- A policy, treaty, or coordinated set of national policies explicitly aims to:
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will there be an international moratorium on frontier AGI development by EOY 2033??
- A Manifold Markets cota No em 77% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Will there be an international moratorium on frontier AGI development by EOY 2033? é resolvido?
- Will there be an international moratorium on frontier AGI development by EOY 2033? deverá ser resolvido em 31 de dezembro de 2033.
- Como Will there be an international moratorium on frontier AGI development by EOY 2033? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: This market resolves YES if, before January 1, 2034, there is a formal, publicly announced international agreement or coordinated policy that constitutes a moratorium on frontier AGI development, meeting the criteria below.