Will there be a serious lawsuit against AGI development because x-risk, in the West before 2030?
ChinaOne-OffCrime e justiça3a
Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 61%
Previsores
4
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 1 hora
Atrasado12/12/24, 15:49 UTC1/01/30, 22:59 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Will a protest attracting 100,000 participants against AGI development occur before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill a protest attracting 10,000 participants against AGI development occur before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a serious neo-Luddite movement (complete with major organizations and funding topping ~$1 Million USD) by 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a serious incident caused by AI before 2030? (AI Chernobyl)
Manifold MarketsWill Brigitte Macron win her defamation lawsuit against Candace Owens?
KalshiWill Rippling win its lawsuit against Deel?
KalshiRegras
Taken seriously by the court
- Specifically cite global catastrophic risk, risk to humanity, or something equivalent
- May be against a company, person, or government
- Must be against a meaningful attempt to build AGI (current frontier labs count).
- A lawsuit that a government that isn't developing AGI isn't doing enough to govern it, doesn't count.
- Doesn't have to be in a US court, but China is excluded.
