What will the tariff rate on Chinese imports be on Jan 1, 2027?
Política comercialOne-OffChinaEuropa2m
KalshiVerificar disponibilidadeKYC obrigatórioDados de resolução verificadosBem calibradoPonto médio do livro selecionado
10% or above · —
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Preço registado
10% or above 95.5%Líder entre 6 opções
10% or above 95.5%Qualidade do mercado
36 / 100
Baixa qualidadeVolume 24h
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Contratos em aberto
1,9 mil US$
Contratos em aberto: baixoCompra / Venda
— / —
10% or aboveSpread
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Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 19 minutos
23/07/26, 16:00 UTC1/01/27, 04:59 UTC
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Tendências
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Condições da plataforma
Fonte: Kalshi
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- Encerramento antecipado:
- Sim
- Prazo de liquidação:
- 30m (informativo)
Profundidade de mercado · 10% or above
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KalshiUS tariffs on Chinese imports on January 1, 2027?
Manifold MarketsU.S. tariff rate on China on December 31, 2026?
PolymarketRegras
If the general import tariff rate on imports from People's Republic of China into the United States on Jan 1, 2027 is at least 20%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Liquida via:Fox NewsMSNBCThe Wall Street Journalthe United States CongressSemaforABCThe InformationCBSThe Washington PostAxiosCNNReutersthe Associated PressPoliticoThe New York Timesthe President of the United StatesWhite HouseBloomberg NewsNBC
- The market resolves based on the general import tariff rate that is actually in effect (i.e., being collected) on the specified date. This includes both universal tariffs on all U.S. imports and country-specific tariffs on the specified country. Only tariffs that are currently active and being collected count - announced but not implemented tariffs, paused tariffs, or suspended tariffs do not qualify. The tariff rate refers to the general baseline rate, not including product-specific duties or exemptions. If multiple general rates apply, the general import tariff rate is the sum of all applicable general rates in effect. Examples (for date = Jan 1, 2026): India: 25% Reciprocal Tariff (EO 14326) + 25% Russian Oil Penalty (EO 14329) = 50% China: 10% Reciprocal Tariff (EO 14358) + 10% Fentanyl Duty (EO 14357) = 20% European Union: 15% Reciprocal Tariff "Floor" (EO 14326) Falkland Islands: 10% Reciprocal Tariff (EO 14326)
Regras de cada resultado
- 10% or above
- If the general import tariff rate on imports from People's Republic of China into the United States on Jan 1, 2027 is at least 10%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 15% or above
- If the general import tariff rate on imports from People's Republic of China into the United States on Jan 1, 2027 is at least 15%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 20% or above
- If the general import tariff rate on imports from People's Republic of China into the United States on Jan 1, 2027 is at least 20%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 30% or above
- If the general import tariff rate on imports from People's Republic of China into the United States on Jan 1, 2027 is at least 30%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 50% or above
- If the general import tariff rate on imports from People's Republic of China into the United States on Jan 1, 2027 is at least 50%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 100% or above
- If the general import tariff rate on imports from People's Republic of China into the United States on Jan 1, 2027 is at least 100%, then the market resolves to Yes.