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  • Início
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  1. Mercados de Previsão
  2. Trade Policy
  3. Will Americans receive tariff stimulus checks?
Will Americans receive tariff stimulus checks?

Will Americans receive tariff stimulus checks?

One-OffTrade PolicyPolíticaUS Politics6m
KalshiKalshiVerificar disponibilidadeKYC obrigatório2% de taxa
Probabilidade implícita atual
Before 2027
Before 2027 10%
Líder entre 5 opções
Qualidade do mercado

44 / 100

Baixa qualidade
Volume 24h

47,3 €

Liquidez

8,4 mil €

Liquidez média
Compra / Venda

10.0% / 11.0%

Spread

10.0%

Spread amplo
Dados do mercado

Atualizado há 5 minutos

11/12/25, 22:001/01/27, 4:59

Tendências

Resultado24hProbabilidade
Before May
Before May
0%
Before June
Before June
0%

Resultado escolhido

Before 202710%

Regras

If at least one million Americans have received payments of at least $1,000 directly attributable to tariff revenue is reported by any of the Source Agencies before May 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • Clarification (12/18/25):  For this market to resolve to Yes, a Source Agency must report that at least one million Americans have received payments of at least $1,000 directly attributable to tariff revenue.
  • A Source Agency writing that someone (e.g., the President) claimed the payments are from tariff revenue does not satisfy this requirement.
  • The Source Agency must report it as fact, not as a claim made by another party.
  • For example, "Millions of Americans received payments this week, which were funded by tariff revenue" would qualify, whereas "Trump said the payments received yesterday are funded by tariff revenue" would not qualify.
  • If at least one million Americans have received payments of at least $1,000 directly attributable to tariff revenue is reported by any of the Source Agencies before Jun 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Ativos Sensíveis ao Macro

BitcoinBTC$62,613.02+2.07%EthereumETH$1,648.07+1.25%SolanaSOL$64.97+1.33%

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Will Trump lower beef tariffs?

0,2 €
Before Jul 1, 2026: 9%KalshiKALSHI
Manifold Markets

What will be true about Trump's tariff dividend? ("stimulus check")

0 €
~50% or more of Americans receive it by end 2026: 15%Manifold MarketsMANIFOLD MARKETS

Ativos nestes tópicos

DogecoinDOGE$0.0848+1.52%XRPXRP$1.11+0.27%BNBBNB$594.47+1.52%CardanoADA$0.1657+3.31%HyperliquidHYPE$55.59+0.31%AvalancheAVAX$6.57+0.82%

Notícias Relacionadas

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Regras

If at least one million Americans have received payments of at least $1,000 directly attributable to tariff revenue is reported by any of the Source Agencies before May 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • Clarification (12/18/25):  For this market to resolve to Yes, a Source Agency must report that at least one million Americans have received payments of at least $1,000 directly attributable to tariff revenue.
  • A Source Agency writing that someone (e.g., the President) claimed the payments are from tariff revenue does not satisfy this requirement.
  • The Source Agency must report it as fact, not as a claim made by another party.
  • For example, "Millions of Americans received payments this week, which were funded by tariff revenue" would qualify, whereas "Trump said the payments received yesterday are funded by tariff revenue" would not qualify.
  • If at least one million Americans have received payments of at least $1,000 directly attributable to tariff revenue is reported by any of the Source Agencies before Jun 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.