KalshiVerificar disponibilidadeKYC obrigatório2% de taxaDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoProbabilidade implícita atual
Above 5% 96%Líder entre 11 opções
Qualidade do mercado
45 / 100
Baixa qualidadeVolume 24h
—
Liquidez
2,5 mil €
Liquidez médiaSpread
4.0 pt
Spread moderadoDados do mercado
Atualizado há 16 minutos
28/07/26, 20:4529/10/26, 12:29
Tendências
Ativos Sensíveis ao Macro
Regras
If the the US effective tariff rate (customs duties collected ÷ nominal imports of goods, represented by B235RC1Q027SBEA ÷ A255RC1Q027SBEA) for Q3 2026 is above 3%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:FRED
- If the the US effective tariff rate (customs duties collected ÷ nominal imports of goods, represented by B235RC1Q027SBEA ÷ A255RC1Q027SBEA) for Q3 2026 is above 4%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the the US effective tariff rate (customs duties collected ÷ nominal imports of goods, represented by B235RC1Q027SBEA ÷ A255RC1Q027SBEA) for Q3 2026 is above 5%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the the US effective tariff rate (customs duties collected ÷ nominal imports of goods, represented by B235RC1Q027SBEA ÷ A255RC1Q027SBEA) for Q3 2026 is above 6%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the the US effective tariff rate (customs duties collected ÷ nominal imports of goods, represented by B235RC1Q027SBEA ÷ A255RC1Q027SBEA) for Q3 2026 is above 7%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the the US effective tariff rate (customs duties collected ÷ nominal imports of goods, represented by B235RC1Q027SBEA ÷ A255RC1Q027SBEA) for Q3 2026 is above 8%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Mercados abertos
Trade Policy
POLYMARKETIran charges Hormuz fees by which date?
- December 31-9.0pt47.4%
- October 31-5.5pt33%
- September 30-8.0pt14.4%
+3 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 2,1 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 30,6 mil
KALSHIWhat will Ulta say during their next earnings call?
- Uncertainty+4.0pt90%
- AI / Artificial Intelligence86%
- Luxury80%
+13 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 14,2 mil
POLYMARKETUS-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by August 31?
- Yes+13.5pt69.3%
- No-13.5pt30.7%
- Volume total
- € 5,8 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 1,2 mil
POLYMARKETWhich countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?
- Canada-1.0pt20%
- India18%
- Israel17%
+14 mais resultados
POLYMARKETUS x China tariff agreement by December 31?
- Yes+0.1pt92%
- No-0.1pt8%
- Volume total
- € 191,2 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 1,1 mil
KALSHIHow much will the US acquire Greenland for?
- $0 / No Acquisition-1.0pt86.6%
- $600 billion to $899 billion-1.2pt3.1%
- $1 billion to $9 billion3.1%
+5 mais resultados
- Volume total
- Will Trump announce a trade deal with Cuba?
- Will Trump announce a new trade deal in Aug 2026?
- Jones Act domestic shipping requirements removed by December 31?
- Will Americans receive tariff stimulus checks?
- When will the US and China reach a tariff agreement?
- Will the Supreme Court hear a case on Trump's tariffs in 2026?
- Which sectors will Trump tariff in 2026?
- Copper cable hit with Sec. 232 tariffs by which date?
- Will the CIT strike down Trump's Section 301 tariffs in 2026?
- Will Apple purchase CXMT memory chips in 2026?
Criptos relacionadas
Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de US effective tariff rate for Q3 2026?
- A Kalshi cota Above 5% em 96% em 21 de agosto de 2026.
- Quando US effective tariff rate for Q3 2026 é resolvido?
- US effective tariff rate for Q3 2026 deverá ser resolvido em 29 de outubro de 2026.
- Como US effective tariff rate for Q3 2026 é liquidado?
- A Kalshi liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: If the the US effective tariff rate (customs duties collected ÷ nominal imports of goods, represented by B235RC1Q027SBEA ÷ A255RC1Q027SBEA) for Q3 2026 is above 3%, then the market resolves to Yes.