Will the U.S. formally eliminate the tariff on Irish whiskey by October 31, 2026?
Política comercialOne-OffPolíticaPolítica dos EUAEleiçãoEuropa3d
Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 72.8%
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Atualizado há 6 horas
Desatualizado13/09/26, 22:19 UTC1/11/26, 03:59 UTC
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On September 13, 2026, at the trophy ceremony for the Amgen Irish Open at his Doonbeg course in County Clare, President Trump said he plans to remove the 10% U.S. tariff currently applied to Irish whiskey.
- Irish whiskey is subject to the 10% duty on most EU imports, which was cut from 15% to 10% in July 2026.
- This market is not about whether he said it.
- It is about whether the statement becomes a published legal instrument before the end of October.
- RESOLVES YES if, on or before 23:59 ET on October 31, 2026, a U.S. government action eliminating the additional/reciprocal tariff on Irish whiskey has been published or made effective, evidenced by at least one of:
- a notice in the Federal Register (federalregister.gov) modifying the HTSUS so that Irish whiskey (HTS 2208.30) imported from the EU enters at a 0% additional/reciprocal duty rate;
