Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualSim 62.2%
Previsores
12
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 4 minutos
20/09/26, 15:58 UTC30/09/26, 23:59 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
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Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if Anthropic officially releases a new model in the "Sonnet" tier during the month of September 2026 (between September 1, 2026, and September 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM UTC).
- Otherwise, this market resolves to NO.
- To qualify for a YES resolution, the model must meet the following conditions:
- It must be officially announced by Anthropic or listed as a generally available or publicly accessible to claude.ai, Claude Code, or API users.
- It must explicitly feature "Sonnet" in its official name (e.g., Claude Sonnet 5.1, Claude Sonnet 6).
Mercados abertos
AIPOLYMARKETNext Claude Opus released on?
- September 22+72.4pt74.5%
- September 23+11.6pt13.7%
- September 24+3.8pt4.9%
+13 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 269,8 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 199,9 mil
KALSHITime's Person of the Year for 2026
- Zohran Mamdani-4.0pt27%
- Mark Carney-3.0pt19%
- Pope Leo XIV-7.0pt9%
+39 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 1,3 mi
POLYMARKETWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
+13 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 4,4 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 107,5 mil
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-1.4pt70.3%
- ChatGPT-0.9pt13.9%
- Gemini-1.7pt7.9%
+5 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 10,3 mi
POLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic-0.2pt99%
- OpenAI+0.6pt1%
- Meta0%
+18 mais resultados
POLYMARKETAnthropic lab leak by which date?
- June 30, 2027-4.0pt7%
- December 31, 2026+0.2pt4%
- Volume total
- € 85 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 65,3 mil
- Best AI this week
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- Anthropic IPO by which date?
- Next Claude Opus released by which date?
- Next GPT Sol Model (5.7+) released on?
- OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- Anthropic market share this week
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Next GPT Luna Model (5.7+) released on?
Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will a new Claude Sonnet model be released in September 2026??
- A Manifold Markets cota Yes em 62.2% em 22 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Will a new Claude Sonnet model be released in September 2026? é resolvido?
- Will a new Claude Sonnet model be released in September 2026? deverá ser resolvido em 30 de setembro de 2026.
- Como Will a new Claude Sonnet model be released in September 2026? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: Resolution criteria