Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atual9h - 10h 17%Líder entre 20 opções
Previsores
54
Tipo de pergunta
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Variação 7d
0.0 pts
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 12 horas
Desatualizado18/12/25, 00:39 UTC1/12/26, 00:37 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Claude Sonnet 5 METR 50% time horizon
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Manifold MarketsNext Claude Sonnet (5.6+) released by which date?
PolymarketWhat will Claude Sonnet's output token price hit in 2026?
PolymarketRegras
This market will resolve to the highest 50% time horizon, as reported by METR, for the first Claude Sonnet 4.6 thinking model to appear on METR's graph.
- Claude Sonnet 4.7 counts for the purpose of this market, if 4.6 is skipped.
- So does 4.75, but 5 would not count.
- 50% time horizon is a measure of AI autonomy based on the length of tasks that AI can do: roughly, it is the time that humans take to complete tasks that an AI system can successfully do 50% of the time.
- See METR's Time Horizon 1.1 update for the technical definition.
- As of April 2026, frontier time horizons are around 12 hours, with a doubling time of roughly 4 months.
