Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualSim 65.4%
Previsores
52
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 12 horas
Desatualizado27/07/23, 17:53 UTC1/01/00, 07:59 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Will a human brain (mind) be successfully uploaded into a computer before 2045?
Manifold MarketsReal-time whole human brain emulation runs before end of 2038 (not necessarily an 'upload' of a specific human).
Manifold MarketsReal-time whole human brain emulation runs before end of 2038 (not necessarily an 'upload' of a specific human).
Manifold MarketsWill humans have a complete map of the human brain by EOY 2029?
Manifold MarketsRegras
Uploading: scanning the structure of a brain in sufficient resolution and using it as input to a simulation which results in consciousness similar to the original brain.
- (https://manifold.markets/embed/JonathanRay/conditional-on-uploading-tech-will)
Mercados abertos
Science
KALSHIWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
- Before 2035+10.0pt85%
- Before 2030+7.0pt83%
- Before 2029+17.9pt50%
+2 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 211 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 110,5 mil
POLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31+0.1pt4%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- April 300%
+3 mais resultados
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 2029-1.0pt20%
- Before 202812%
- Before 20275%
+5 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 28,6 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 21,3 mil
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No96%
- Yes+1.9pt4%
- Volume total
- € 1,6 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 5,2 mil
KALSHIWhen will Intellia Therapeutics submit a BLA for Lonvo-z?
- before October+64.0pt98%
- before 2027+22.0pt98%
- before December+30.0pt98%
+3 mais resultados
KALSHIWhen will the Riemann hypothesis be solved?
- Before 2035+4.0pt49%
- Before 2030+18.0pt39%
- Before 2032-9.0pt39%
+1 mais resultados
- Volume total
- Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?
- Will there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?
- Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?
- Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
- When will Compass Pathways submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin?
- How many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 7 - September 13?
- How many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?
- Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
- How many 6.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 7 - September 13?
- Natural Disaster in 2026?
Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will a human brain be uploaded by 2100??
- A Manifold Markets cota Yes em 65% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Will a human brain be uploaded by 2100? é resolvido?
- Will a human brain be uploaded by 2100? deverá ser resolvido em 1 de janeiro de 2100.
- Como Will a human brain be uploaded by 2100? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: Uploading: scanning the structure of a brain in sufficient resolution and using it as input to a simulation which results in consciousness similar to the original brain.