Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualIn hiding from US/Israeli assassination 46.3%Líder entre 6 opções
Previsores
24
Tipo de pergunta
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Variação 7d
0.0 pts
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 11 horas
Desatualizado10/07/26, 15:18 UTC1/01/27, 00:59 UTC
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Manifold MarketsRegras
Or given any televised statements.
- I'll resolve it to whatever the NYT attributes the absence to, but I'll only start checking 3 months after his first public appearance, as allowance for fog of war.
- I may resolve to prob.
- Update 2026-07-10 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Resolution will be a split resolution between all answers invoked in the reporting sampled, not necessarily equal weight
- December 31 close date is a placeholder; creator will attempt to resolve ~3 months after Mojtaba Khamenei's first public appearance