Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 99%
Previsores
21
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 15 horas
Desatualizado24/06/26, 16:08 UTC30/09/26, 23:59 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15?
PolymarketStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of September? [Polymarket]
Manifold MarketsStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of October? [Polymarket]
Manifold MarketsStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?
PolymarketStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?
PolymarketWill traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal before September 1, 2026?
ForecastExRegras
This question will resolve if IMF PortWatch reports that the 7 day moving average for the Strait of Hormuz is at least 85 by August 31st.
- This uses Metaculus rules.
- September 30th is currently the median estimate per Metaculus.
- https://www.metaculus.com/questions/42728/strait-of-hormuz-normalization-date/
Comparação de fontes de previsão
Mercados abertos
Middle EastPOLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30-8.0pt72%
- September 18-7.5pt68%
- September 11-10.5pt60%
+2 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 978,6 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 379,3 mil
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-0.3pt49.1%
- October 31-1.0pt29.3%
- September 30-2.0pt12.1%
+17 mais resultados
POLYMARKETStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- No+4.5pt80.2%
- Yes-4.5pt19.8%
- Volume total
- € 9,3 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 248,1 mil
POLYMARKETPrime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Gadi Eizenkot+5.0pt58.2%
- Benjamin Netanyahu-1.0pt28.6%
- Naftali Bennett-1.0pt7.1%
POLYMARKETIsrael closes its airspace by which date?
- September 30+0.1pt100%
- May 8-1.4pt0%
- May 31-1.2pt0%
+16 mais resultados
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 317%
- September 30+0.3pt1%
- July 310%
+7 mais resultados
- Volume total
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
- When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- Crude Oil all time high by which date?
- Al Nassr vs Abha
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?
Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of September? [Metaculus]?
- A Manifold Markets cota No em 99% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of September? [Metaculus] é resolvido?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of September? [Metaculus] deverá ser resolvido em 30 de setembro de 2026.
- Como Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of September? [Metaculus] é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: This question will resolve if IMF PortWatch reports that the 7 day moving average for the Strait of Hormuz is at least 85 by August 31st.
- Onde mais Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of September? [Metaculus] está listado?
- A mesma pergunta também está listada em Polymarket.