Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of October? [Polymarket]
One-OffGeopolíticaOriente Médio6dManifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 99%
Previsores
24
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 5 minutos
2/09/26, 15:11 UTC31/10/26, 23:59 UTC
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Manifold MarketsStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
LimitlessFree flow of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz returns to normal in 2026?
Manifold MarketsRegras
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and Oct 30, 2026.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships.
- Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
- This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published.
- If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.