Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atual6. Never in 2026 19%Líder entre 6 opções
Previsores
25
Tipo de pergunta
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Variação 7d
+10.0 pts
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 5 minutos
5/04/26, 20:43 UTC1/01/27, 00:59 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
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PolymarketStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?
PolymarketStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? [Polymarket]
Manifold MarketsStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of October? [Polymarket]
Manifold MarketsStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by January 31? [Polymarket]
Manifold MarketsRegras
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and the corresponding date.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships.
- Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
- This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published.
- If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Comparação de fontes de previsão
- Também disponível em Kalshi — When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal? · Before Jan 1, 2029 70%