PolymarketVerificar disponibilidadeSem KYC2% de taxaDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoAviso de qualidade dos dadosDados desatualizados
Dados de 1 de set. de 2026, 21:00 UTC · política pm-quality-3
Probabilidade implícita atual
September 30 10%+2.0ptLíder entre 19 opções
Qualidade do mercado
≤49 / 100
Baixa qualidadeVolume 24h
112,5 mil €
Liquidez
28,8 mil €
Alta liquidezSpread
1.0 pt
Spread apertadoComentários
993
Variação 7d
+3.0 pts
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 2 horas
Desatualizado4/05/26, 23:521/10/26, 3:59
Tendências
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Regras
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace.
- A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace.
- Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify.
- Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Comparação de fontes de previsão
2 plataformas cotam atualmente este mercado. A probabilidade de referência ponderada pela liquidez da CoinRithm para September 30 é de 10%. As cotações diferem cerca de 40 pontos percentuais entre as plataformas mais afastadas.
Referencia CoinRithm September 30 10% · 2 plataformas · 40 pt de dispersao entre venues
Mercados abertos
Middle EastPOLYMARKETWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- No-2.0pt82.2%
- Yes+2.0pt17.8%
- Volume total
- € 55,3 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 505,9 mil
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 mais resultados
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-0.2pt61%
- October 31+1.5pt39%
- September 30-1.0pt20%
+17 mais resultados
POLYMARKETStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
- No+0.3pt97%
- Yes-0.3pt3%
- Volume total
- € 6,4 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 184,8 mil
POLYMARKETIran full airspace closure by which date?
- December 31+5.5pt31%
- September 30+3.0pt14%
- June 30+0.3pt0%
+7 mais resultados
POLYMARKETPrime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Gadi Eizenkot-1.1pt52.6%
- Benjamin Netanyahu+1.5pt32.6%
- Naftali Bennett-0.5pt7.4%
- Crude Oil all time high by which date?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by which date?
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- Iran leadership change by which date?
- Iran charges Hormuz fees by which date?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Will Iran target an Arab country by which date?
Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Israel closes its airspace by which date??
- A Polymarket cota September 30 em 10% em 1 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Israel closes its airspace by which date? é resolvido?
- Israel closes its airspace by which date? deverá ser resolvido em 1 de outubro de 2026.
- Como Israel closes its airspace by which date? é liquidado?
- A Polymarket liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
- Onde mais Israel closes its airspace by which date? está listado?
- A mesma pergunta também está listada em Limitless.