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If China invades Taiwan will the invasion be successful? [No Survivorship Bias]
GeopolíticaOne-OffChina
Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atual
Sim 55%
Previsores
48
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 6 horas
Desatualizado24/02/24, 00:52 UTC1/01/00, 00:57 UTC
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WARNING: Unlike most conditional markets, I will not necessarily cancel this market when the deadline hits.
- If at the end of the century China has substantially the same policy toward Taiwan (i.e. that annexation would be in principle good), I will assume that the chinese leadership assessed their prospects, decided such an invasion would fail, and chose not to go through with it.
- I will therefore resolve NO.
- Here's a similar market without that clause: https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/if-china-invades-taiwan-will-they-s.
- I created this market when my search didn't turn up Isaac's, but when I noticed the difference in approaches, decided to leave this one up as an experiment.
- Feel free to fill my limit order over there.
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de If China invades Taiwan will the invasion be successful? [No Survivorship Bias]?
- A Manifold Markets cota Yes em 55% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando If China invades Taiwan will the invasion be successful? [No Survivorship Bias] é resolvido?
- If China invades Taiwan will the invasion be successful? [No Survivorship Bias] deverá ser resolvido em 1 de janeiro de 2100.
- Como If China invades Taiwan will the invasion be successful? [No Survivorship Bias] é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: WARNING: Unlike most conditional markets, I will not necessarily cancel this market when the deadline hits.