Contingent on Greenland invasion by USA, China invades Taiwan within 1 year?
Política dos EUAOne-OffGeopolíticaChina1a
Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosBem calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 74.9%
Previsores
15
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 23 horas
Desatualizado31/03/25, 01:23 UTC21/01/28, 02:23 UTC
Tendências
Regras
Resolution Criteria
- This market resolves to YES if China launches a military invasion of Taiwan within 1 year (365 days) following an invasion of Greenland by the USA.
- The market resolves to NO if China does not invade Taiwan within this timeframe after a Greenland invasion, including the case where a Taiwan invasion precedes a Greenland invasion.
- The market resolves N/A if no invasion of Greenland occurs by the end of Trump's current term.
- China considers Taiwan part of its territory and has maintained a long-standing goal of reunification.
- The Chinese government has not ruled out the use of force to achieve this goal, though military analysts debate the likelihood and timing of any potential invasion.
