Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atual
Sim 66.7%
Previsores
297
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Atualizado há 6 horas
Desatualizado12/11/22, 02:34 UTC1/01/00, 05:00 UTC
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Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
If China invades Taiwan, will the United States intervene directly?
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PolymarketEuropean country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by which date?
PolymarketRegras
Ukraine has shown how challenging it can be for a larger power to take over a smaller one that really doesn't want to be taken over and has the support of the West.
- Will the same thing happen to Taiwan?
- Resolves YES if Taiwan becomes unambiguously a part of China due to forceful takeover by China.
- Resolves NO if Chinia attempts to invade Taiwan and is rebuffed.
- Resolves N/A if China or Taiwan stop existing in their current forms.
- (Other than Taiwan being incorperated into China by force.
Mercados abertos
Russia / UkrainePOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt75%
- New People (NL)-4.1pt21%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
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- Volume total
- € 22,2 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 473 mil
POLYMARKETRussia Parliamentary Election Winner
- United Russia (ER)+0.6pt100%
- Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF)-0.1pt0%
- A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP)0%
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POLYMARKETPutin out as President of Russia by which date?
- June 30, 2027-1.0pt14%
- December-1.0pt7%
- September 30,-0.1pt1%
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POLYMARKETNobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- Yulia Navalnaya8%
- UNRWA+0.5pt8%
- International Court of Justice-1.0pt6%
+17 mais resultados
POLYMARKETUnited Russia seats in the next Russian legislative election?
- 325–339-0.5pt37.1%
- 340–354+2.0pt24.7%
- 310–324-5.0pt22.7%
POLYMARKETBank of Russia decision in September?
- No Change-1.0pt68.7%
- Decrease+1.5pt28.3%
- Increase-1.3pt3%
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31?
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
- Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?
- NATO x Russia military clash by which date?
- Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?
- Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by which date?
- Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by which date?
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de If China invades Taiwan, will they succeed??
- A Manifold Markets cota Yes em 67% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando If China invades Taiwan, will they succeed? é resolvido?
- If China invades Taiwan, will they succeed? deverá ser resolvido em 1 de janeiro de 2100.
- Como If China invades Taiwan, will they succeed? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: Ukraine has shown how challenging it can be for a larger power to take over a smaller one that really doesn't want to be taken over and has the support of the West.