If ASI is created and doesn't wipe out humanity, will it be able to survive these temperatures within a year?
GeopolíticaIAWeatherManifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atual1687 K (melting point of silicon) 26.6%Líder entre 7 opções
Previsores
26
Tipo de pergunta
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Variação 7d
0.0 pts
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 16 horas
Desatualizado22/04/24, 14:34 UTC1/01/00, 23:59 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
If ASI is created and doesn't wipe out humanity, will it torture any human-level-intelligences within a year?
Manifold MarketsIf ASI is created and doesn't wipe out humanity, will it begin mining the moon within a year?
Manifold MarketsIf safe-ish ASI is created, will it be able to hack human minds within a year?
Manifold MarketsLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
PolymarketDario Amodei arrested by December 31?
PolymarketWhich companies will be added to the Pentagon’s Chinese military companies list?
KalshiRegras
Each option resolves YES if, within a year of artificial superintelligence (ASI) being created (and not killing us all), it is able to create computer hardware that can run the ASI itself and theoretically be able to survive these temperatures being continuously applied to the entire external surface for an arbitrary duration.
- Survival in this case means the resulting computer can resume running afterwards without outside intervention, at a level that still qualifies as an ASI, even if performance is degraded relative to before.
- The hardware can include any armour/insulation layers needed, not just the computronium itself.
- Other potentially relevant temperatures for context:
- 0 C = 273 K (melting point of water ice)
- 100 C = 373 K (boiling point of water)
Mercados abertos
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt74%
- New People (NL)-3.0pt22%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.9pt3%
+5 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 22,3 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 581,3 mil
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-3.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.8%
- September 30-3.5pt12.3%
+17 mais resultados
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30-12.5pt69%
- September 18-14.5pt62%
- September 11-17.5pt51%
+2 mais resultados
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 31+1.0pt8%
- September 30+0.4pt2%
- July 310%
+7 mais resultados
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 mais resultados
POLYMARKETWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- No-1.0pt84.2%
- Yes+1.0pt15.8%
- Volume total
- € 55,9 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 96,8 mil
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de If ASI is created and doesn't wipe out humanity, will it be able to survive these temperatures within a year??
- A Manifold Markets cota 1687 K (melting point of silicon) em 27% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando If ASI is created and doesn't wipe out humanity, will it be able to survive these temperatures within a year? é resolvido?
- If ASI is created and doesn't wipe out humanity, will it be able to survive these temperatures within a year? deverá ser resolvido em 1 de janeiro de 2100.
- Como If ASI is created and doesn't wipe out humanity, will it be able to survive these temperatures within a year? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: Each option resolves YES if, within a year of artificial superintelligence (ASI) being created (and not killing us all), it is able to create computer hardware that can run the ASI itself and theoretically be able to survive these temperatures being continuously applied to the entire external surface for an arbitrary duration.