Manifold Markets
Speelgeld-voorspellingsplatform waar iedereen markten kan aanmaken over elk onderwerp. Gebruikt Mana (M$), een gratis virtuele valuta.
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Methodologie en toegang
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Verrekent in
Mana (M$)
Live statistieken
Open markten10.067
Totale markten28.499
Deelnemers705.521
Gem. voorspellers/vraag25.2
Gem. uitkomsten/markt4.7
Afwikkelingspercentage65%
Laatst bijgewerkt4 sep 2026, 2:24
Topcategorieën
1. One-Off8527 Open markten
2. Politiek2196 Open markten
3. AI1880 Open markten
4. Tech1776 Open markten
5. US Politics1696 Open markten
Afwikkelingsgeschiedenis
10,219 afgewikkelde markten · sinds 2022 · 99% met tijdstempel van de aanbieder
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Open markten
MANIFOLD MARKETSWhat will be the outcome of the Lizzo lawsuit?
- Judgement in favor of defendants on all causes of action+78.6pt81.6%
- Lawsuit settled-43.7pt14.4%
- Judgement in favor of plaintiffs on at least one cause of action-31.2pt3%
+1 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 517,6
- 24u volume
- € 172,1
MANIFOLD MARKETSIn what year will Al achieve 95% or higher score on the FrontierMath benchmark?
- 2026+52.3pt95.5%
- 2027-26.0pt2%
- 2028-14.2pt1.1%
+3 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 7,1K
- 24u volume
- € 2K
MANIFOLD MARKETSWhich company's model will be #1 on Artificial Analysis at the end of September 2026
- Anthropic+49.2pt96.8%
- OpenAI-40.3pt0.7%
- Google-1.6pt0.4%
+6 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 1,4K
- 24u volume
- € 538
MANIFOLD MARKETSMajor League Baseball Games ⚾️ (LIVE)
- Wednesday 3/26, 8:05 PM: NYY Yankees WIN at SF Giants100%
- Thursday 3/27, 2:20 PM: WSH Nationals WIN at CHC Cubs100%
- Thursday 3/27, 4:10 PM: BOS Red Sox WIN at CIN Reds100%
+2027 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 884K
- 24u volume
- € 5,8K
MANIFOLD MARKETSOpenAI Astra Prop Bets
- Scores at least 40% on Terminal Bench Science+48.9pt98.9%
- Scores at least 55% on Terminal Bench 4+48.9pt98.9%
- Costs at least $50 per million output tokens on release+47.2pt97.2%
+7 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 2,2K
- 24u volume
- € 2,1K
MANIFOLD MARKETSWill this question get 90 traders in 509 days? (September 7, 2026) UTC
- 10 traders in 10 days (April 26)100%
- 20 traders in 20 days (May 6)100%
- 30 traders in 125 days (August 19)100%
+12 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 7,9K
- 24u volume
- € 127,4
MANIFOLD MARKETSWhat score will Grand Theft Auto VI get on Metacritic?
- At least 50+46.2pt96.2%
- At least 60+40.0pt90%
- At least 70+34.1pt84.1%
+7 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 939,6
- 24u volume
- € 939,6
MANIFOLD MARKETSsat score
- >=1500+43.1pt93.1%
- >=1520+16.2pt66.2%
- >=1540+9.0pt59%
+3 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 310,6
- 24u volume
- € 310,6
MANIFOLD MARKETSWhat is the name of Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce’s dog?
- Wendy+40.8pt99%
- Mahomey-1.4pt0.1%
- Archer-1.4pt0.1%
+9 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 1,7K
- 24u volume
- € 962,9
MANIFOLD MARKETSWhat tier will the next Claude release be?
- Opus+39.0pt59%
- Sonnet-7.3pt12.7%
- Fable/Mythos-9.7pt10.3%
+2 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 92,9
- 24u volume
- € 92,9
MANIFOLD MARKETSWhen will 2^1277-1 be factored?
- Before 2032+37.9pt87.9%
- Before 2031+30.8pt80.8%
- Before 2030+17.4pt67.4%
+3 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 221
- 24u volume
- € 221
MANIFOLD MARKETSOn which dates will the US government be shutdown?
- Feb 1 2026100%
- Feb 3 2026100%
- Oct 2 2026-37.3pt0.9%
+10 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 19,7K
- 24u volume
- € 5,5K
- When is OpenAI Astra opening to preview for developers?
- Bitcoin price in 7 days? (100 mana prize, read desc)
- Will Zack Polanski stand in a by election before the next UK general election?
- What will be the highest Epoch Capabilities Index score in 2026?
- ▶️Which Youtube channels will release at least one video in September 2026? [ADD RESPONSES]
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- When will the US 10 year treasury note yield go higher than 5%?
- Who will win Uttar Pradesh State Elections held in Jan - March 2027?
- In what year will 15 items on the CoolFold 100 Challenge have happened ?
- Who will be the 2026 ATP Tour Year End #1 Tennis Player?
- Brazil 2026 Election: Who will be elected Senator in Minas Gerais (MG)?
- Which company has the best LLM at the end of 2026? (Artificial analysis leaderboard)
- When exactly will Anthropic IPO?
- How many new people will I talk to by the end of this week?
- When will Patrick Mahomes be "definitely washed" (cumulative market)
- Important Bayesian updating market
- Who will be gold #5 in the Indonesia National Mathematical Olympiad 2026?
- When will a frontier OpenAI model with native audio support be released?
- Brazil 2026 Election: Who will be elected State Governor in Minas Gerais (MG)?
- Which team will win the 2026 Leagues Cup?
- Who will finish second in the 2026 Vuelta a Espana?
- When will GPT-7 be released?
- [READ DESCRIPTION] How many crypto perps like the BTC perp will there be? Hopefully many.
- Who will be the 2026 ATP Tour Year End #1 Tennis Player?
- Which women's tennis players will reach the 2026 U.S. Open Semifinals?
- How many Super Bowls will Patrick Mahomes win before he retires?
- When will an AI Model first score >= 170 on the Epoch Capabilities Index?
- Top AI Model 2026 (Epoch Capabilities Index, ECI)
- Which incumbent Representative or Senator will have the lowest WAR in the 2026 Midterm US Congressional Elections?
- Bundesliga — 2026-27 Matchday 2 Fixtures
- When will humanity's last exam be saturated? (>80%)
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- What rank in views will The Amazing Digital Circus Finale get?
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- Who will win the 2026 Vuelta a España?
- What will happen to Bernie's Proposed "Ban ASI" Bill?
- Bitcoin vs. Gold vs. S&P 500 in 2026 [Polymarket]
- Next Venezuelan President
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- 2026 Swedish general election prop bets (Add Answers)
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Markten waar mensen naar zochten
Pagina's van dit platform die zichtbaarheid in zoekmachines verwierven, met hun uitkomsten.
- Quem será o Bola de Ouro da 7ª edição da Copa Gosa?
- Who will win the California State Assembly 12th District Seat?
- What % of Americans will cite computers/technology as the US's top problem by Dec 31, 2026? (Gallup)
- Name a city with the craziest sports fans. (Bilt Rent Free Aug 1, 2026)1 aug 2026
- Name a reality show where romance seems more like a competition. (Bilt Rent Free Aug 1, 2026)1 aug 2026
- Who will be Wes Streeting's Chancellor at the end of 2026?
- Alan’s Conservative AGI countdown reaches 100% before August 1 2026
- 🇪🇸ESP vs 🇦🇹AUT [World Cup '26]2 jul 2026
- In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?
- 🇨🇴COL vs 🇨🇩COD [World Cup '26]24 jun 2026
- 🇫🇷FRA vs 🇮🇶IRQ [World Cup '26]23 jun 2026
- IMO 2026 Bronze Cutoff?19 jul 2026
- Quem ganhará a Copa Gosa?
- US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...? [Polymarket]
- Which team will win ARML 2026?30 mei 2026
- Who will be Andy Burnham's Chancellor at the end of 2026?
- Iran closes its airspace by?1 jun 2026
- 🇸🇳SEN vs 🇮🇶IRQ [World Cup '26]26 jun 2026
- Will Z win the 2026 Fields Medal?
- Who is behind Ox Alpha, the mysterious new frontier LLM on OpenRouter?26 aug 2026
- 🇨🇭SUI vs 🇧🇦BIH [World Cup '26]18 jun 2026
- 🇩🇿ALG vs 🇦🇹AUT [World Cup '26]28 jun 2026
- METR 80% time horizon exceeds 10h before September
- 🇳🇴NOR vs 🇫🇷FRA [World Cup '26]26 jun 2026