Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspelling15–19 30.1%Koploper van 7 uitkomsten
Voorspellers
30
Vraagtype
multiple choice
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
7d wijziging
0.0 pts
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 18 uur geleden
Verouderd27 nov 23, 23:19 UTC1 jan 28, 12:59 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Human moon landing in 2026?
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Manifold MarketsHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 8, 2026?
KalshiWhere will it rain on Sep 8, 2026?
KalshiRegels
This market resolves to the number of non-test rocket launches, intended to fly to space, that contribute (or are intended to contribute) to the first Artemis human moon landing mission mission (previously planned to be Artemis III), that are specific to the Artemis program.
- Other Artemis launches that deliver (or intend to deliver) equipment to lunar orbit or the lunar surface count, if that equipment is intended to be available for use in the first Artemis human moon landing mission (whether it is actually used or not).
- Previous Artemis launches that do not leave anything behind intended to be available for use in the first moon landing mission do not count.
- Launches that deliver general communications satellites to Earth orbit, that might be used during the moon landing mission do not count.
- That is, I am not going to count all of Starlink, or any other existing communications satellites, or any future communications satellite launches to Earth orbit, if they are general-purpose (even if their upgrade is prompted by the Artemis program, or anything like that).
- A launch to deliver a satellite to lunar orbit (or a halo orbit associated with an Earth-Moon Lagrange point) specifically as part of the Artemis program, however, will count (even if the satellite is somewhat general-purpose and may outlast the Artemis program) - if NASA or SpaceX or some other official partner in the Artemis program describes such a satellite as being part of the Artemis program, and as long as it is intended to be available for use in the first Artemis human moon landing mission, it will count.
Open markten
TechKALSHIBTC price on Sep 8, 2026 at 8pm EDT?
- $78,400 or above99%
- $78,300 or above99%
- $78,200 or above99%
+97 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 944,1K
- 24u volume
- € 721,8K
KALSHIHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 8, 2026?
- 90° or above+68.0pt95.2%
- 88° to 89°-22.0pt1%
- 84° to 85°-8.0pt1%
+3 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
KALSHIBTC 15 min · $78,442.97 target
- No73%
- Yes27%
- Totaal volume
- € 620K
- 24u volume
- € 536K
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- Guyana Amazon Warriors+4.0pt66.3%
- Antigua And Barbuda Falcons-3.0pt33.7%
- Totaal volume
- € 514,9K
- 24u volume
- € 496,9K
KALSHIWhere will it rain on Sep 8, 2026?
- New Orleans+48.0pt99%
- Houston+70.0pt99%
- Minneapolis+17.0pt99%
+19 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
KALSHIHighest temperature in New York City on Sep 8, 2026?
- 80° to 81°+53.0pt95.2%
- 79° or below-3.0pt1%
- 82° to 83°-44.0pt1%
+3 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
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Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor How many rocket launches will be needed for the first Artemis human moon-landing mission??
- Manifold Markets prijst 15–19 op 30% per 8 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt How many rocket launches will be needed for the first Artemis human moon-landing mission? afgewikkeld?
- How many rocket launches will be needed for the first Artemis human moon-landing mission? wordt naar verwachting op 1 januari 2028 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt How many rocket launches will be needed for the first Artemis human moon-landing mission? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: This market resolves to the number of non-test rocket launches, intended to fly to space, that contribute (or are intended to contribute) to the first Artemis human moon landing mission mission (previously planned to be Artemis III), that are specific to the Artemis program.