Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensGoed gekalibreerdWaarschuwing datakwaliteitVerouderde gegevens
Gegevens van 25 jul 2026, 08:40 UTC · beleid pm-quality-3
Huidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingBefore September 2026 5.2%-11.0ptKoploper van 13 uitkomsten
Voorspellers
64
Vraagtype
multiple choice
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt eergisteren
Verouderd8 aug 25, 18:3730 aug 26, 18:36
Trends
0%
0%
0%
0%
Alleen virtueel geld, geen echt geldGeen financieel advies
Gekozen uitkomst
Before August 20262%
Platforms vergelijken· Before September 2026
Gerangschikt op marktkwaliteit, dan liquiditeit en 24-uursvolume| Platform | Kwaliteit | Kans | vs. referentie | Volume 24u | Liquiditeit | Actualiteit | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 KalshiBeste algemeen90% overeenkomst · geverifieerd | Gemiddeld | 64% | — | € 57,1 | € 18,6K | 19 minuten geleden | Openen → |
| Manifold MarketsDeze pagina | — | 5% | — | — | — | eergisteren |
Ook beschikbaar op Kalshi
When will xAI release Grok 5?
1.0 pts2mnd
58.7%
+1.0pt36.7%
4.6%
50 • Gemiddelde kwaliteitBrede spreadGemiddelde liquiditeitHoge ambiguïteit
Totaal volume€ 38,2K
24u volume€ 57,1
KALSHIRegels
"Grok 5" refers to a model recognized as the successor of Grok 4 in a similar way to how Gemini 3 was the successor to Gemini 2, so Grok 5.0 would count, but Gemini 4.X would not.
- The model must be accessible without individual vetting or invitation — free or paid, via API or product.
- Open, non-selective waitlists count.
- Closed betas, invite-only access, researcher programs, A/B tests, and anonymous benchmark appearances do not.
- Country-level bans do not prevent resolution.
- @8AyI5Np5yl (this market)
Vergelijkingsgegevens zijn alleen informatief. Prijzen en liquiditeit kunnen variëren.
Volumetrend
$5008 jul8d aan data25 jul
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"Grok 5" refers to a model recognized as the successor of Grok 4 in a similar way to how Gemini 3 was the successor to Gemini 2, so Grok 5.0 would count, but Gemini 4.X would not.
- The model must be accessible without individual vetting or invitation — free or paid, via API or product.
- Open, non-selective waitlists count.
- Closed betas, invite-only access, researcher programs, A/B tests, and anonymous benchmark appearances do not.
- Country-level bans do not prevent resolution.
- @8AyI5Np5yl (this market)