Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingBefore 2027 67.9%+0.6ptKoploper van 17 uitkomsten
Voorspellers
72
Vraagtype
multiple choice
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
7d wijziging
+3.9 pts
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 6 minuten geleden
8 aug 25, 18:37 UTC1 nov 26, 03:59 UTC
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Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Regels
"Grok 5" refers to a model recognized as the successor of Grok 4 in a similar way to how Gemini 3 was the successor to Gemini 2, so Grok 5.0 would count, but Gemini 4.X would not.
- The model must be accessible without individual vetting or invitation — free or paid, via API or product.
- Open, non-selective waitlists count.
- Closed betas, invite-only access, researcher programs, A/B tests, and anonymous benchmark appearances do not.
- Country-level bans do not prevent resolution.
- @8AyI5Np5yl (this market)
Open markten
AI
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-6.5pt85%
- December 15,-5.5pt85%
- November 30,-10.5pt82%
+7 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 2,6 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 55,6K
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.8pt68%
- ChatGPT+0.8pt16.5%
- Grok+1.0pt6.8%
+5 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 9,4 mln.
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027-3.0pt92%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-9.0pt89%
- Before Feb 1, 2027-9.0pt83%
+9 extra uitkomsten
POLYMARKETOpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- No IPO by December 31, 2026+4.8pt98%
- 1.5T+-0.9pt2%
- <500B-0.2pt0%
+4 extra uitkomsten
KALSHIBest AI this week
- Claude91.6%
- ChatGPT+1.0pt1.9%
- Amazon Nova0.9%
+6 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 71,6K
- 24u volume
- € 34,8K
POLYMARKETWill OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- ↑$900B+10.4pt100%
- ↑$1.0T-4.5pt82%
- ↑$1.25T-10.5pt52%
+12 extra uitkomsten
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- OpenAI IPO by which date?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Most popular AI this week
- Best AI in Sep 2026?
- OpenRouter AI token usage: Sep 7–13
- Which companies will officially announce an IPO this year?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first?
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Grok 5 (xAI) release date?
- Manifold Markets prijst Before 2027 op 68% per 13 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Grok 5 (xAI) release date afgewikkeld?
- Grok 5 (xAI) release date wordt naar verwachting op 1 november 2026 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Grok 5 (xAI) release date afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: "Grok 5" refers to a model recognized as the successor of Grok 4 in a similar way to how Gemini 3 was the successor to Gemini 2, so Grok 5.0 would count, but Gemini 4.X would not.