Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingOther 37.1%Koploper van 19 uitkomsten
Voorspellers
41
Vraagtype
multiple choice
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
7d wijziging
-16.9 pts
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 9 uur geleden
Verouderd15 sep 23, 17:01 UTC2 jul 30, 03:59 UTC
Trends
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Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
What will be the highest magnitude of an earthquake near the Phlegraean Fields in italy (Campi Flegrei) in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Alok Singh, Nate Bottman, Ryan Alweiss, or Elliot Glazer ever win the Alternative Fields Medal?
Manifold MarketsWill four humans receive the Fields Medal in 2030?
Manifold MarketsWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
KalshiWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
KalshiWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
PolymarketRegels
Each winner resolves to 25% assuming there are 4 winners.
- Probability mass is distributed evenly among all winners.
- This will resolve to the real name of the winners, nothing else.
- If someone puts a duplicate option, it will resolve to the first option.
Open markten
ScienceKALSHIWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
- Before 2035+0.9pt86%
- Before 2030+6.0pt82%
- Before 2029-21.9pt48%
+2 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 230,8K
- 24u volume
- € 77,1K
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 202921%
- Before 2028-1.0pt12%
- Before 2027+0.1pt5%
+5 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 28,6 mln.
POLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 314%
- September 30-0.1pt1%
- April 300%
+3 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
KALSHIWhen will the Riemann hypothesis be solved?
- Before 2035+11.0pt56%
- Before 203248%
- Before 2030-19.0pt44%
+1 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 109,5K
KALSHIHow many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?
- Above 0+3.0pt48%
- Above 1-2.0pt18%
- Above 2-6.0pt8%
+5 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No97%
- Yes-0.7pt3%
- Totaal volume
- € 1,6 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 2,9K
- How many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 7 - September 13?
- Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
- Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
- Will there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?
- 9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
- Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?
- Major volcano eruption in 2026?
- When will Compass Pathways submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin?
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?
- Will a human land on Mars before California starts high-speed rail?
Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Who will win the 2030 Fields Medals??
- Manifold Markets prijst Other op 37% per 9 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Who will win the 2030 Fields Medals? afgewikkeld?
- Who will win the 2030 Fields Medals? wordt naar verwachting op 2 juli 2030 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Who will win the 2030 Fields Medals? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: Each winner resolves to 25% assuming there are 4 winners.