Manifold MarketsGeslotenGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensGoed gekalibreerdDeze markt is gesloten en wacht op bevestigde afwikkeling.
Niet-geverifieerde afwikkelingsdata
Deze uitkomst is afgeleid of wordt niet ondersteund door provider-grade afwikkelingsbewijs.
Huidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 97.3%
Voorspellers
15
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt eergisteren
Verouderd16 feb 26, 8:101 aug 26, 7:04
Trends
97.3%
2.7%
Regels
This market resolves based on the "Conservative Countdown to AGI" maintained by Dr. Alan D. Thompson
- Current Status: 97% (Updated Feb 2026).
- YES: The "Current Progress" meter on the official countdown page reaches 100% at any point on or before July 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM PT.
- NO: The countdown remains at or below 99% by the start of August 2026.
- Source: The primary source is the official website.
- If Dr. Thompson moves the needle to 100% or officially declares "AGI Achieved" per his criteria (Median Human performance + Physical Embodiment), the market resolves YES.
