Vergelijking van voorspellingsbronnen
Vergelijk gematchte voorspellingsvragen tussen handelsmarkten en forecast-bronnen. Zie waar kansen overeenkomen, uiteenlopen en hoe de methodologie verschilt.
Cincinnati vs Milwaukee
Grootste kloof: Milwaukee 80 pt3d
| Uitkomst |  Gemini |  Polymarket |  Kalshi+1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| NRFI | — | 100% | — |
| Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) | — | 100% | — |
| O/U 8.5 | — | 100% | — |
| 1st 5 Innings Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) | — | 100% | — |
| 2.5 | — | 100% | — |
| 3.5 | — | 100% | — |
| Platformkwaliteit | 49€ 9KGegevens per | 49€ 163,1KGegevens per | 49€ 1,8 mln.Gegevens per |
Also on Kalshi: Cincinnati vs Milwaukee
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
Grootste kloof: J.D. Vance 6 pt
| Uitkomst | Polymarket |  Robinhood (Rothera) |  Manifold Markets+2 |  PredictIt | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.D. Vance | 51% | — | — | — | 45% |
| JVAN | — | 46% | — | — | — |
| JD Vance | — | — | — | 45% | — |
| MRUB | — | 23% | — | — | — |
| Marco Rubio | 17% | — | — | 20% | 20% |
| RDES | — | 6% | — | — | — |
| Platformkwaliteit | 74€ 143,7KGegevens per | 52€ 3,5KGegevens per | Gegevens per | Gegevens per | 89€ 98KGegevens per |
Also on Manifold Markets: Republican Presidential Nominee 2028, Who will be the Republican nominee for president in 2028?
Final: Spain vs Argentina
Grootste kloof: Argentina 2 pt
| Uitkomst | Kalshi | Manifold Markets+3 | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spain | 99% | 100% | 100% |
| Argentina | 2% | 0% | 0% |
| Congo DR | 1% | 0% | 0% |
| Iraq | 1% | 0% | 0% |
| Czechia | 1% | 0% | 0% |
| Bosnia and Herzegovina | 1% | 0% | — |
| Platformkwaliteit | 49€ 235,4 mln.Gegevens per | Gegevens per | 49€ 22,3 mln.Gegevens per |
2028 Democratic presidential nominee
Grootste kloof: Andy Beshear 4 pt
| Uitkomst | Kalshi+1 | Robinhood (Rothera) | Manifold Markets+4 | PredictIt |  Smarkets | Polymarket+1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 16% | — | — | — | 19% | — |
| Jon Ossoff | 17% | — | — | 18% | 17% | — |
| JOSS | — | 18% | — | — | — | — |
| AOCA | — | 17% | — | — | — | — |
| A. Ocasio-Cortez | — | — | — | 16% | — | — |
| Gavin Newsom | 13% | — | — | 14% | 12% | — |
| Platformkwaliteit | 74€ 697,6KGegevens per | 57€ 13,1KGegevens per | Gegevens per | Gegevens per | 51€ 246,9Gegevens per | 79€ 720,6Gegevens per |
Also on Kalshi: Holborn and St Pancras by-election winner?
Also on Manifold Markets: Who will be the Democratic nominee for president in 2028?, Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028, Who will be the democratic nominee for president in 2028, Democratic Nominee for 2028 Presidential Election
Also on Polymarket: Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
Victoria parliamentary election: 3rd place?
Grootste kloof: Greens 4 pt
| Uitkomst | Kalshi | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|
| One Nation | 59% | 62% |
| Nationals | 17% | — |
| Greens | 11% | 15% |
| Labor | 5% | 6% |
| Liberal | 2% | — |
| Liberal–National | — | 1% |
| Platformkwaliteit | 56€ 266,8Gegevens per | 49€ 0Gegevens per |
Will Mamdani freeze NYC rents before 2027?
Grootste kloof: Yes 3 pt
| Uitkomst | Polymarket | Manifold Markets |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 88% | 85% |
| No | 12% | 15% |
| Platformkwaliteit | 54€ 119,1Gegevens per | Gegevens per |
Will OpenAI release a social network in 2026?
Grootste kloof: No 2 pt
| Uitkomst | Polymarket | Manifold Markets |
|---|---|---|
| No | 89% | 91% |
| Yes | 11% | 9% |
| Platformkwaliteit | 61€ 5,9KGegevens per | Gegevens per |
Will Stripe acquire Paypal in 2026?
CoinRithm-referentie5%0 pt spreiding tussen venuesGrootste kloof: Yes 2 pt
| Uitkomst | CoinRithm-referentie | Polymarket | Kalshi | Manifold Markets |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | — | 95% | — | 93% |
| No | — | — | 90% | — |
| Yes | 5% | — | 10% | — |
| Yes | — | 5% | — | 7% |
| Platformkwaliteit | 2 platforms | 49€ 0Gegevens per | 54€ 63,2Gegevens per | Gegevens per |
Ebola pandemic in 2026?
CoinRithm-referentie3%2 pt spreiding tussen venuesGrootste kloof: No 2 pt
| Uitkomst | CoinRithm-referentie | Polymarket | Kalshi | Manifold Markets |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | — | 97% | 99% | 97% |
| Yes | 3% | 3% | 1% | 3% |
| Platformkwaliteit | 2 platforms | 76€ 631Gegevens per | 49€ 0Gegevens per | Gegevens per |
Brighton vs Arsenal
CoinRithm-referentieArsenal59%1 pt spreiding tussen venuesGrootste kloof: Tie 1 pt
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