Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attuale
No 80.8%
Previsori
9
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 10 ore fa
Obsoleto30 mag 24, 22:01 UTC1 gen 30, 22:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will Greenland become independent from Denmark before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill the Russian Federation break up into multiple independent states before 2030
Manifold MarketsWill Papua New Guinea ratify Bougainville independence?
KalshiWill California be an independent nation-state by EOY 2035?
Manifold MarketsUS recognition of an independent Palestinean state in 2026?
FutuurUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
PolymarketRegole
Resolves Yes, if the western half of New Guinea belonging to Indonesia becomes independent/ more than 50% of UN members recognise the country.
Mercati aperti
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt75%
- New People (NL)-4.1pt21%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 22,2 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 470,8K €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-2.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.3%
- September 30-4.0pt12.1%
+17 altri esiti
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30+1.0pt80%
- September 18+1.0pt75%
- September 11+6.5pt70%
+2 altri esiti
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No-0.2pt96%
- Yes+0.2pt4%
- Volume totale
- 35,3 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 100,1K €
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 altri esiti
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 317%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- July 310%
+7 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- What will Trump say during RNC Convention (Night 2)?
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will West Papua be independent by 2030??
- Manifold Markets quota No al 81% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will West Papua be independent by 2030??
- Will West Papua be independent by 2030? dovrebbe risolversi il 1 gennaio 2030.
- Come viene liquidato Will West Papua be independent by 2030??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Resolves Yes, if the western half of New Guinea belonging to Indonesia becomes independent/ more than 50% of UN members recognise the country.