KalshiVerifica disponibilitàKYC richiesto2% di commissioneDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoProbabilità implicita attuale
Before Jan 1, 2028 54%
Qualità del mercato
46 / 100
Bassa qualitàVolume 24h
—
Liquidità
7,5K €
Liquidità mediaBid / Ask
11.0% / 16.0%
Spread
5.0 pt
Spread moderatoDati di mercato
Aggiornato 2 minuti fa
27 gen 26, 15:00 UTC1 gen 27, 04:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will Greenland vote for independence in 2026?
PolymarketWill Alberta vote for independence in 2026?
PolymarketWill Greenland vote for independence in 2026?
KalshiWill Kaliningrad achieve independence from Russia by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsAlberta votes YES in independence referendum by end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsKRG declares independence from Iraq by December 31?
PolymarketRegole
If Papua New Guinea has agreed to or announced the ratification of Bougainville's independence the named outcome, then the market resolves to Yes.
Si regola tramite:the Associated PressReutersThe New York TimesThe Washington PostThe Wall Street JournalBloomberg NewsBBC NewsFinancial TimesThe GuardianPoliticoCNNFox NewsABC NewsCBS NewsNBC NewsAl Jazeera EnglishDeutsche WelleFrance 24 EnglishNHK World-JapanChannel NewsAsiaThe South China Morning PostThe Times of IndiaThe Globe and Mail
- An agreement or announcement qualifies if it involves formal signing of treaties, parliamentary approval with binding effect, official ratification, formal commitment by the head of state/government with constitutional authority, official statements by authorized ministers, official press releases, formal declarations during government proceedings, or official statements to international bodies.
- Phased implementation announcements and multi-party agreements where the country is a signatory qualify.
- Preliminary discussions, conditional agreements contingent on circumstances, opposition party statements, leaked documents, think-tank recommendations, general aspirations without specific commitment, draft legislation without approval, and regional actions (unless specified) do NOT qualify.
- Retraction of previously announced commitments also does not satisfy the criterion.
Mercati aperti
PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 605,7 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 697,7K €
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.2pt1%
+16 altri esiti
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 603,2 Mln €
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
- Gavin Newsom14%
+45 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 183,4 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 471,3K €
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.5pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 altri esiti
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- South Carolina Senate winner?
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
- NH-01 Democratic nominee?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will Papua New Guinea ratify Bougainville independence??
- Kalshi quota Before Jan 1, 2028 al 54% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will Papua New Guinea ratify Bougainville independence??
- Will Papua New Guinea ratify Bougainville independence? dovrebbe risolversi il 1 gennaio 2027.
- Come viene liquidato Will Papua New Guinea ratify Bougainville independence??
- Kalshi liquida questo mercato come segue: If Papua New Guinea has agreed to or announced the ratification of Bougainville's independence the named outcome, then the market resolves to Yes.