WIll the United States Economy enter a recession by 2030?
One-OffEconomiaPolitica commercialePolitica USA3a
Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoAvviso sulla qualità dei datiDati della fonte degradati
Dati al 25 ott 2026, 16:20 UTC · criterio pm-quality-4
Previsione della comunità attualeSì 74.3%
Previsori
8
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 7 ore fa
Obsoleto12 gen 26, 02:08 UTC31 dic 29, 23:59 UTC
Trend
Asset Sensibili al Macro
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
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Manifold MarketsRegole
Resolution criteria
- The market resolves YES if the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) Business Cycle Dating Committee officially declares that a recession occurred at any point between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2029.
- A recession is defined as a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and lasts more than a few months.
- The NBER's approach is retrospective and may take several months to announce official peak and trough dates.
- The market resolves NO if no recession is declared by the NBER by the end of 2030.
- Resolution source: NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee
