Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 96.3%
Previsori
49
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 7 ore fa
Obsoleto24 giu 25, 21:06 UTC31 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will Iran acquire nuclear weapon by the end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill Iran test fire a nuclear weapon before the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill any nuclear weapon be detonated in 2026?
Manifold MarketsNew nuclear weapon tests in 2026?
FutuurWill the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
PolymarketWill the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
LimitlessRegole
Resolution will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, including reporting on weapons tests (reports that they had the weapon to perform the test are sufficient; they do not need to still be in possession of another one).
- See also: @/EvanDaniel/will-iran-acquire-a-nuclear-weapon
Mercati aperti
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt75%
- New People (NL)-4.1pt21%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 22,2 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 470,8K €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-2.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.3%
- September 30-4.0pt12.1%
+17 altri esiti
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30+1.0pt80%
- September 18+1.0pt75%
- September 11+6.5pt70%
+2 altri esiti
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No-0.2pt96%
- Yes+0.2pt4%
- Volume totale
- 35,3 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 100,1K €
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 altri esiti
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 317%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- July 310%
+7 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- What will Trump say during RNC Convention (Night 2)?
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will Iran acquire a nuclear weapon by end of 2026??
- Manifold Markets quota No al 96% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will Iran acquire a nuclear weapon by end of 2026??
- Will Iran acquire a nuclear weapon by end of 2026? dovrebbe risolversi il 31 dicembre 2026.
- Come viene liquidato Will Iran acquire a nuclear weapon by end of 2026??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Resolution will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, including reporting on weapons tests (reports that they had the weapon to perform the test are sufficient; they do not need to still be in possession of another one).