Will Iran acquire nuclear weapon by the end of 2027?
CommoditiesGeopoliticaOne-OffMiddle EastTecnologia1aManifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 89.7%
Previsori
15
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 10 ore fa
Obsoleto13 mag 26, 16:08 UTC31 dic 27, 23:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will Iran acquire a nuclear weapon by end of 2026?
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KalshiRegole
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) or a consensus of major intelligence agencies (such as the U.S. Office of the Director of National Intelligence) officially confirms that Iran has successfully produced, tested, or acquired a fully functional nuclear weapon on or before December 31, 2027.
- If no such confirmation is made by this date, or if international authorities determine that Iran has not achieved this capability, the market resolves to NO.
- In the event of conflicting official reports, the market will resolve based on the assessment provided by the IAEA.
- Iran’s nuclear program has been a subject of intense international scrutiny for decades.
- Since the 2018 U.S. withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), Iran has progressively increased its uranium enrichment levels.
Mercati aperti
CommoditiesKALSHIUS gas prices tomorrow
- Above 4.175099%
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+26 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 395,8K €
- Volume 24h
- 395,6K €
KALSHIFlorida gas prices tomorrow
- Above 3.910099%
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+44 altri esiti
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- 198,3K €
- Volume 24h
- 198,2K €
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KALSHIOhio gas prices tomorrow
- Above 3.900099%
- Above 3.895099%
- Above 3.890099%
+44 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 78,5K €
- Volume 24h
- 78,5K €
KALSHIUS gas prices this week
- Above 4.1400+25.0pt99%
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+18 altri esiti
- Volume totale
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Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will Iran acquire nuclear weapon by the end of 2027??
- Manifold Markets quota No al 90% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will Iran acquire nuclear weapon by the end of 2027??
- Will Iran acquire nuclear weapon by the end of 2027? dovrebbe risolversi il 31 dicembre 2027.
- Come viene liquidato Will Iran acquire nuclear weapon by the end of 2027??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Resolution criteria